I predict Trump's demise towards the end of 2022

[Beastly Boy]

Sure I am going out on a limb here, but recent events and, more importantly, the trajectory in which they have developed and are developing, lead me to be reasonably confident in my prediction. And it has nothing to do with Trump's physical or mental deterioration.

Here are my observations:
- Despite lying and cheating, abusing his position as the head of state to his advantage and violating every conceivable legal and ethical standard to win the election, he lost.
- Despite widespread voter suppression, he lost The Senate and failed to take control of the House.
- Despite stuffing the courts with right wing appointees, he lost every legal challenge to overturn election results. In fact, recent decisions by various courts reinforced, rather than weaken, America's electoral institutions.
- Despite using all levers of power of the presidency to intimidate and pressure the military, DOJ, American electoral institutions and individual politicians of any influence, he failed to change the results of the elections.
- Despite excessive pandering to his most militant and violent hardcore extreme right, racist and batshit delusional devotees and literally sending them to commit treason and overturn the election results by force, he failed.

As a result, Trump lost a great deal of his political capital. He no longer has the power of the Presidency at his disposal. He can no longer pressure foreign heads of states to start bogus investiogations into his enemies, or share top secrets with Uncle Vlad, or threaten to withdraw military assistance to NATO. He can no longer appoint incompetent but loyal members of the Administration or federal judges. He can no longer grant or withhold federal aid to states or agencies based on his approval or disapproval of how they are run. The only significant political advantage he has left is his firm grip on the cojones of the GOP. And even that grp shows signs of weakening, notwithstanding the rhetoric that may suggest otherwise.

To me, the telling sign was the recent CPAC presidential straw poll. Despite many hours of most sincere Trump worship by the most devoted, hand-picked cult followers coming from the Nazi rune-shaped stage (or maybe because of it), only 55% of the straw poll participants chose Trump to be the next party nominee. Coming from Trump's supposedly hardcore supporters, that's dismal!

The only remaining lever of power Trump seems to be left with is to intimidate the current establishment of the GOP. It is unclear whether he has any dirt on any of them, so I will dirsegard this possibility. What Trump has left is a threat to "primary" GOP elected officials. And he named names. I will not go into the likelihood of him succeeding in this, because it is pretty irrelevant. Let's assume he succeeds to primary all of them. The result would be a cohort of right-to-extreme-right winger facing the Democrats in the 2022 election. Based on the outcome of the 2020 elections, it is extremely unlikely that the American electorate has any appetite left to move the country further to the right. Hence, Trump's strategy will greatly increase the chances for the Democratic electoral victories. Should this be the case, the already "primaried" GOP establishment is not likely to take it lying down.

And that's the best scenario Trump can hope for. If his efforts to "primary" GOP's current ruling class fail to any significant degree, his last effective lever of political power and influence will be gone. I don't think his political relevance can survive either one of the two scenarios.