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Beastly Boy

(11,296 posts)
Tue Mar 2, 2021, 11:27 AM Mar 2021

I predict Trump's demise towards the end of 2022 [View all]

Sure I am going out on a limb here, but recent events and, more importantly, the trajectory in which they have developed and are developing, lead me to be reasonably confident in my prediction. And it has nothing to do with Trump's physical or mental deterioration.

Here are my observations:
- Despite lying and cheating, abusing his position as the head of state to his advantage and violating every conceivable legal and ethical standard to win the election, he lost.
- Despite widespread voter suppression, he lost The Senate and failed to take control of the House.
- Despite stuffing the courts with right wing appointees, he lost every legal challenge to overturn election results. In fact, recent decisions by various courts reinforced, rather than weaken, America's electoral institutions.
- Despite using all levers of power of the presidency to intimidate and pressure the military, DOJ, American electoral institutions and individual politicians of any influence, he failed to change the results of the elections.
- Despite excessive pandering to his most militant and violent hardcore extreme right, racist and batshit delusional devotees and literally sending them to commit treason and overturn the election results by force, he failed.

As a result, Trump lost a great deal of his political capital. He no longer has the power of the Presidency at his disposal. He can no longer pressure foreign heads of states to start bogus investiogations into his enemies, or share top secrets with Uncle Vlad, or threaten to withdraw military assistance to NATO. He can no longer appoint incompetent but loyal members of the Administration or federal judges. He can no longer grant or withhold federal aid to states or agencies based on his approval or disapproval of how they are run. The only significant political advantage he has left is his firm grip on the cojones of the GOP. And even that grp shows signs of weakening, notwithstanding the rhetoric that may suggest otherwise.

To me, the telling sign was the recent CPAC presidential straw poll. Despite many hours of most sincere Trump worship by the most devoted, hand-picked cult followers coming from the Nazi rune-shaped stage (or maybe because of it), only 55% of the straw poll participants chose Trump to be the next party nominee. Coming from Trump's supposedly hardcore supporters, that's dismal!

The only remaining lever of power Trump seems to be left with is to intimidate the current establishment of the GOP. It is unclear whether he has any dirt on any of them, so I will dirsegard this possibility. What Trump has left is a threat to "primary" GOP elected officials. And he named names. I will not go into the likelihood of him succeeding in this, because it is pretty irrelevant. Let's assume he succeeds to primary all of them. The result would be a cohort of right-to-extreme-right winger facing the Democrats in the 2022 election. Based on the outcome of the 2020 elections, it is extremely unlikely that the American electorate has any appetite left to move the country further to the right. Hence, Trump's strategy will greatly increase the chances for the Democratic electoral victories. Should this be the case, the already "primaried" GOP establishment is not likely to take it lying down.

And that's the best scenario Trump can hope for. If his efforts to "primary" GOP's current ruling class fail to any significant degree, his last effective lever of political power and influence will be gone. I don't think his political relevance can survive either one of the two scenarios.

63 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I like how you think, my dear Beastly Boy! Let's hope you're right. ♥ CaliforniaPeggy Mar 2021 #1
Sounds about right. Trumpomania, like all fads, has run its course. TreasonousBastard Mar 2021 #2
Correction Jerry2144 Mar 2021 #3
You got that right. In_The_Wind Mar 2021 #4
Hygiene issues notwithstanding, a hand can be used for that purpose. Beastly Boy Mar 2021 #10
With my arthritic hands Jerry2144 Mar 2021 #13
Touche! My bad for presuming standard dimensions Beastly Boy Mar 2021 #14
No worries Jerry2144 Mar 2021 #23
lol judesedit Mar 2021 #17
55% Is More Than Enough To Win Nomination sfstaxprep Mar 2021 #5
We are takling about the 55% of the most sniveling minority of the GOP Beastly Boy Mar 2021 #11
I would not worry about it, he will be indicted and will be prevented from running again Escurumbele Mar 2021 #19
I hope this is exactly what happens. calimary Mar 2021 #28
Agree in great part. And investigations by the truck load are coming. Joinfortmill Mar 2021 #6
I like how you think FakeNoose Mar 2021 #7
I see Trump as a passing fad, no_hypocrisy Mar 2021 #8
Ehh..he's done now. I think he'll get bored soon enough Luz Mar 2021 #9
Trump getting kicked off Twitter was the best thing to happen to America. CrispyQ Mar 2021 #12
From your keyboard to karma's ear! SheltieLover Mar 2021 #15
The main thing, Trump's demise happens before 2024. sarcasmo Mar 2021 #16
I see him sitting in jail before 2024 KS Toronado Mar 2021 #18
I see a massive coronary or other catastrophic health failure in his future. Initech Mar 2021 #45
Now that's something worth visualizing.. movingviolation Mar 2021 #55
As l said yesterday I wish nothing but the worst for him! Initech Mar 2021 #59
Or blame it on Antifa or Hillary's E-mails. KS Toronado Mar 2021 #60
Remember when Alex Jones said that Scalia died at the hands of a heart attack gun? Initech Mar 2021 #61
Think you are correct, Brogrizzly Mar 2021 #20
Josh Hawley IS the very definition of loathsome. calimary Mar 2021 #31
don't forget Madison Cawthorn, movingviolation Mar 2021 #56
Problem in 2022 is Gerrymandering and Election Suppression Tommymac Mar 2021 #21
You nailed it! Also, the people he will wnylib Mar 2021 #30
And isn't it pathetic in the extreme - that this has become their only way to win. calimary Mar 2021 #34
By the end of this year or very early next year, he's going to be so deeply enmeshed.... George II Mar 2021 #22
So he'll be frantically and desperately trying to raise money. calimary Mar 2021 #35
Trump is well known for delaying legal proceedings for years. Beastly Boy Mar 2021 #49
True, most of those were civil lawsuits, not criminal charges or NY AG charges. George II Mar 2021 #53
He'll be up to where his neck used to be in legal trouble Warpy Mar 2021 #24
2022 is the key Politicalgolfer Mar 2021 #25
I thought you were predicting his death pandr32 Mar 2021 #26
I was hoping you were a psychic with one hundred percent accuracy and were predicting his death. Lunabell Mar 2021 #27
Trump's power is in the rightwing voting base Martin Eden Mar 2021 #29
Yup LiberalLovinLug Mar 2021 #41
I agree. Mr.Bill Mar 2021 #32
trump will be a danger to our democracy until his final breath. Paladin Mar 2021 #33
I think you make an excellent point about Trump's failures. He dragged the GOP down to his level Martin68 Mar 2021 #36
His base has already lost big faith in his ability to smash us for them. Hortensis Mar 2021 #37
Online Death Calculator predicts tRump's actual demise March 2023 Cozmo Mar 2021 #38
A bit of history...... MyOwnPeace Mar 2021 #39
Phooey. I took "demise" literally birdographer Mar 2021 #40
I think you are right on the money. Butterflylady Mar 2021 #42
Despots don't require political capital bucolic_frolic Mar 2021 #43
Despots require a power base. Beastly Boy Mar 2021 #51
The Bolsheviks were a minority party when their insurrection succeeded bucolic_frolic Mar 2021 #57
hope so but... jcgoldie Mar 2021 #44
Waiting for Godot much? Eyeball_Kid Mar 2021 #46
Actually ThreeGs Mar 2021 #47
He's all they've got. dupagelib Mar 2021 #48
Spot on Moral Compass Mar 2021 #50
Oh, you mean political demise... movingviolation Mar 2021 #52
Disagree: Cult leaders with a strong base of support like Trump typically don't fade andym Mar 2021 #54
There is some evidence to suggest that Trump's prominence as a cult leader is diminishing too. Beastly Boy Mar 2021 #58
Your OP is completely plausible, and even likely. BobTheSubgenius Mar 2021 #62
Let's hope! Blue Owl Mar 2021 #63
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