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In reply to the discussion: Texas was going to turn blue but then Roe vs. Wade was overturned [View all]Celerity
(43,344 posts)15. 2024 will be a good test of that. We have cratered with Latinos/Hispanics.
The Democrats' Hispanic Voter Problem: It's Not As Bad As You Think--It's Worse
https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc
By Ruy Teixeira (Center for American Progress, Brookings Institution, etc)
The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they dont realize how big the shift is; and (2) they dont realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition. On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.
But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.
It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That couldor shouldprovoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking. Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democratsits not as bad as you think, its worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read em and weep.
1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).
snip
much, much more at the link, a tonne of data, this is not just one poll
https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/the-democrats-hispanic-voter-problem-dfc
By Ruy Teixeira (Center for American Progress, Brookings Institution, etc)
The Democrats are steadily losing ground with Hispanic voters. The seriousness of this problem tends to be underestimated in Democratic circles for a couple of reasons: (1) they dont realize how big the shift is; and (2) they dont realize how thoroughly it undermines the most influential Democratic theory of the case for building their coalition. On the latter, consider that most Democrats like to believe that, since a relatively conservative white population is in sharp decline while a presumably liberal nonwhite population keeps growing, the course of social and demographic change should deliver an ever-growing Democratic coalition. It is simply a matter of getting this burgeoning nonwhite population to the polls.
But consider further that, as the Census documents, the biggest single driver of the increased nonwhite population is the growth of the Hispanic population. They are by far the largest group within the Census-designated nonwhite population (19 percent vs. 12 percent for blacks). While their representation among voters considerably lags their representation in the overall population, it is fair to say that voting trends among this group will decisively shape voting trends among nonwhites in the future since their share of voters will continue to increase while black voter share is expected to remain roughly constant.
It therefore follows that, if Hispanic voting trends continue to move steadily against the Democrats, the pro-Democratic effect of nonwhite population growth will be blunted, if not cancelled out entirely, and that very influential Democratic theory of the case falls apart. That couldor shouldprovoke quite a sea change in Democratic thinking. Turning to the nature and size of recent Hispanic shifts against the Democratsits not as bad as you think, its worse. Here are ten points drawn from available data about the views and voting behavior of this population. Read em and weep.
1. In the most recent Wall Street Journal poll, Hispanic voters were split evenly between Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 generic Congressional ballot. And in a 2024 hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, these voters favored Biden by only a single point. This is among a voter group that favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by 26 points according to Catalist (two party vote).
snip
much, much more at the link, a tonne of data, this is not just one poll
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This makes no sense . If it was going to turn blue than other than Republicans cheating
JI7
Jul 2022
#2
I meant Texas on the abortion issue. De Santiis has been pretty quiet on abortion.
applegrove
Jul 2022
#18
No, it is was not that close to turning Blue, that is based off some now out of date projections
Celerity
Jul 2022
#9
I think a lot of us were counting on the Hispanic community to turn Texas blue.
Aristus
Jul 2022
#23