Not that I want you to be wrong, but the evidence from past elections, does not bode well.
The American people witnessed J6 and the overturning of Roe.
Some Americans did. Many did not. Of those who did, some have moved on, being "bored" by "politics". Americans have been conditioned to think of "history" and "politics" as something boring and out of touch with their everyday lives. There are other things that are important to every day life such as gas prices and food prices, interest rates, etc... While those of us who pay attention know that those things are about POLITICS as in, who is in power, what policies are they creating, etc... and trends can be seen from studying accurate history; most people do not make that connection. They do not understand that the gas prices are a result of situations that occurred years ago with the pandemic and short supply chains, that OPEC is cutting production to boost prices, that supply chain issues continue to have worldwide consequences. They see "Democrats have majorities in Congress and the President is a Democrat" and that is all of the scrutiny they give any issue.
I do think that they are underestimating the effect that Dobbs will have on bringing women and those who support their bodily autonomy out to vote. It may be difficult to measure that in polls.
For a "modern" nation the United States has one of the worst levels of political participation. As I said, people have been conditioned to think of Politics as something separate, something outside of what affects them daily, and even as something dirty that the average person wants to avoid. People likely know many of the statistics of their favorite teams or players. They try to gain massive insight into what will be happening on their favorite TV show, but they do not care about politics and may only tune in to the last couple of weeks of news or even just decide how they are going to vote based on their prior affiliation.
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