General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Kyrsten Sinema has an 18% favorable rating in Arizona right now. Democrats: 5% fav, 82% unfav [View all]Celerity
(54,790 posts)someone else, and then Ducey does run and gets the Rethug nomination, Sinema is likely toast in a one-on-one.
Only 10% max of the actual electorate are actually truly indie. Most independents have strong partisan voting records. Furthermore, IF the opponent is Ducey (or another non MAGAt type), Sinema will only draw off a TINY amount of Rethugs (Ducey won 95% of them in 2018, and also won 14% of Dems), and many indies will gladly vote for Ducey. He easily won by 14 points overall despite running into the buzzsaw of the Blue Wave 2028 midterms, and won indies as well.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona

Sinema will never pull off enough voters from the Rethugs and indies, and she will also suffer a serious drop off in support from Dem voters, I truly fear.