Because apparently it needs to be said.

[grantcart]

27. Cash flow possibly but not an actuarial surplus

If you are adding more to the trust fund but significantly increasing future obligations because you are significantly increasing future obligations because you are adding a higher percentage of younger workers then that doesn't mean the trust fund is gaining a 'surplus'.


COVID had a temporary positive impact on SS payments (unfortunately). Could amount to $20 billion this year.

SS Trust fund cannot barrow to meet payments. If the Chief Actuarial Officer determines that the are unable to meet future needs then the law requires that payments to beneficiaries are automatically cut.

Currently it looks like that will happen in 2035.

https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html

The concepts of solvency, sustainability, and budget impact are common in discussions of Social Security, but are not well understood. Currently, the Social Security Board of Trustees projects program cost to rise by 2035 so that taxes will be enough to pay for only 75 percent of scheduled benefits. This increase in cost results from population aging, not because we are living longer, but because birth rates dropped from three to two children per woman. Importantly, this shortfall is basically stable after 2035; adjustments to taxes or benefits that offset the effects of the lower birth rate may restore solvency for the Social Security program on a sustainable basis for the foreseeable future. Finally, as Treasury debt securities (trust fund assets) are redeemed in the future, they will just be replaced with public debt. If trust fund assets are exhausted without reform, benefits will necessarily be lowered with no effect on budget deficits.

The author is the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration.