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democrattotheend

(12,011 posts)
8. Sorry, but it's true
Fri Jul 12, 2024, 12:11 PM
Jul 2024

He had a 7.2 point lead in the national polling averages in 2020, won the actual national popular vote by 4.5 points, and barely won the election with 44,000 votes in the closest states. And the electoral math has gotten worse for us since the 2020 census. I don't think he (or any Democrat) has a great shot without at least a 5 point lead in the national polls, and a stronger job approval rating than he has now. A big part of the reason the debate has been so disastrous (besides the MSM exaggerating how bad he actually was and elected Democrats making it worse with the public handwringing and calls to step aside) was because he already wasn't in great shape before the debate.

I don't know what Biden's campaign was thinking pushing to have this early debate and then a 3 month gap until the next debate. Obama was able to turn things around after his first debate with Romney in part by doing much better at the second debate, and because he wasn't in as bad shape before the debate. Plus he was only 51 and wasn't facing questions about his age and fitness for the job, so a bad debate didn't hurt him as much. But if Biden had scheduled another debate with Trump a week or two after the first one, people would probably be at least waiting to see how he did at the second debate before calling for his head.

Recommendations

6 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Wish I could recommend a 1000 times Peacetrain Jul 2024 #1
Time for the MSM to pile on again JohnSJ Jul 2024 #2
Time to call the media again!! Call MSNBC, or email, and each of the pundits. BComplex Jul 2024 #4
Oh they are BaronChocula Jul 2024 #13
Unfortunately. No surprise though JohnSJ Jul 2024 #20
This message was self-deleted by its author WarGamer Jul 2024 #3
"But, but, but .... he's not AHEAD by enough! He needs to be ahead by a MILE! ARRRGGHHH!!!!" Deek1935 Jul 2024 #5
Sorry, but it's true democrattotheend Jul 2024 #8
On the bright side, we have time to tie TFG to Project 2025 Raven123 Jul 2024 #10
In 2020, if just 21,461 Biden voters had flipped to Trump (spread out over just three states: GA, WI, AZ), then Celerity Jul 2024 #12
Trump's approval is much worse than Biden's VictorianCurls57 Jul 2024 #22
Trump doesn't have an approval rating right now democrattotheend Jul 2024 #25
That's wrong TexasDem69 Jul 2024 #28
Welcome to DU LetMyPeopleVote Jul 2024 #35
Absolutely spot on TexasDem69 Jul 2024 #27
If Biden would have done as well in the debate as the press conference yesterday? Freethinker65 Jul 2024 #30
Joe's a fighter. mzmolly Jul 2024 #6
Why do you think that? TexasDem69 Jul 2024 #29
Why do you ask? mzmolly Jul 2024 #31
Sorry, to clarify TexasDem69 Jul 2024 #32
Because he's a fighter. mzmolly Jul 2024 #33
The Key To The Stampede Is Two-Fold The Magistrate Jul 2024 #7
We all need to bdamomma Jul 2024 #9
So time to dump our candidate! sinkingfeeling Jul 2024 #11
The way that the Electoral College works President Biden will need at least a five point lead totodeinhere Jul 2024 #14
My 2 cents KS Toronado Jul 2024 #15
Biden's base is now showing up, and speaking up. republianmushroom Jul 2024 #16
There are also plenty of people fleeing Trump. GoCubsGo Jul 2024 #18
Oh My, Oh My, Oh My! Ford_Prefect Jul 2024 #17
I don't believe any of these polls. The silent majority will wake up and crush Rs in Nov. Pepsidog Jul 2024 #19
Simon Rosenberg is good for the soul senseandsensibility Jul 2024 #21
He is like a soothing balm flamingdem Jul 2024 #24
Just think about how that would look if the (at a minimum) Epstein/pedo or Project 2025 actually got some traction. Scalded Nun Jul 2024 #23
What I was looking for. So the polls have moved up? kerry-is-my-prez Jul 2024 #26
The hideous Dem4life1234 Jul 2024 #34
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»11 Polls this week, Biden...»Reply #8