I expect the shutdown to last through 11/15, then 47 caves.

[pat_k]

Last edited Sun Oct 19, 2025, 07:16 PM - Edit history (1)

Opps. Posted this earlier and somehow self-deleted. Took a shot at recreating.
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With 47's floor approval being breached, I think any Republican who won by less than 10%, or even 15%, is getting very, very nervous.

There are cracks. At least 8 members of the House have broken with Johnson on his indefensible recess. Soon it will be a dozen. Then the momentum against Johnson will pick up.

As 47's approval continues to slide, the resolve to thwart public opinion on the enhanced subsidies will crumble

And his approval will continue to slide.

Here's why think it will last through 11/15, and then end with a trump "deal" on subsides.

The harm of the shutdown is terrible to witness. But as it goes on, don't be surprised if Trump allows it to drag out at least through the first week of Nov.

The reason? Because he wants to suppress release of the Oct job numbers in early Nov.

Remember, the 150,000 or so Federal workers who took the "it's not a buyout" buyout were technically employed through 9/30, which means the bloodbath would be reflected in the report that would be released in early Nov if the government were open.

I expect Republicans/47 to cave, but they won't do it until mid-November. This is in line with Kalshi estimate of around 45 days on the betting market, and lines up with my logic of threading the needle between suppressing the horrific Oct job numbers, and having it resolved with "good news" before families get together for Thanksgiving.