'108-Point Swing!' CNN Data Guru Stunned by John Fetterman's Total Collapse Among Democrats

[Takket]

5. correct.......

these statements drive me nuts.

also drives me nuts when they say someone who has 30% approval and 70% disapproval is "40 points underwater". No, you are 20 points underwater, because that is percentage of people you need to flip to get back to majority 50% approval. (okay technically 50% + 1 more person, but you know what i mean). If you increased your approval percentage by 40 points you would be at 70% approval and 30% disapproval. which is WAY more than you need to be "above water".

(net approval is -40%, and distance to majority is 20%). it is correct that net approval shows "how many more people don't like you", so 40%, but distance to majority accounts for the fact that someone who goes disapproving to approving is causing a swing in BOTH metrics at the same time.