The Kharg Island idea doesn't really make sense [View all]
If the US takes the island, 2 million barrels per day go offline. Oil is pumped to the island using pipes. If the Iranians turn off the oil, there is nothing for the US to export. The only way for it to work financially is to take a significant portion of Iran's oil infrastructure, which I don't think there's much of an appetite for. That's besides the question of how Iran would react. Would they torch the island or attack neighboring oil infrastructure or both? It also doesn't deal with the fact that that Iran has other ways to get oil out.
It seems that the choices are take the island and reduce the oil supply or leave the island alone and continue giving Iran sanctions relief because of the oil supply. Another reason Trump probably wants the island is saving face. He can claim he did something and is so powerful, but that doesn't achieve any military objective.
Source for the 2 million barrels number: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/19/why-targeting-kharg-island-could-backfire-on-trump-00834972
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