General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Reuters: Democratic support for Hillary drops 15 points since February [View all]HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)perhaps you could build that up with evidence that strengthens your claim.
Meanwhile, as a matter of food for thought about dogs and tail-wagging and who as candidates will move what...
It's pretty clear in WI that the New Dem gubernatorial candidate was not received with barn-burning enthusiasm. There's no obvious reason to think that HRC would do any better. Bill Clinton campaigned here for Mary Burke and it didn't really super-charge anything. Progressive pro-Union sentiment is strong here among active democrats, New Dems still have the reputation of being more pro-corporate than pro-union.
The election of US senator is going to be a really big deal in WI.
The oversized favorite going into that is Russ Feingold...from the progressive wing. Feingold supports Bernie Sanders which isn't such a great thing for HRC, but that may be a moot point by the general. Feingold represents a progressive alternative to recent WIDem offerings and has a better than even chance of reigniting enthusiasm here.
The odds on alternative senate candidate to Feingold is Gwen Moore, who will be an overwhelming favorite of urban voters in SE WI. But Moore doesn't want to challenge Feingold, and Moore has said she will sit out if he runs for senate.
It's unclear yet if Feingold will actually run, so things are a bit up in the air. If Moore runs, it's pretty clear she will bring out voters who would likely vote for Clinton although Moore will have a big task to climb over the rural vs urban voting divide of WI.
So it seems that at least in WI, it's as likely that HRC would be looking to get a boost from the person who runs for senate against Johnson as it would be for that dynamic to work the other way around.
I can't speak to other states where senate races will be tremendously important as to whether they will have similar bottom up influence. But, I don't think it can just be assumed that the senate races will be all about running on the presidential nominees coat-tails.