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In reply to the discussion: Sanders bumped off D.C. ballot [View all]pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Here is an article about Bernie's "miracle path" by a much more objective observer.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-really-hard-to-get-bernie-sanders-988-more-delegates/
To reach a pledged delegate majority, Sanders will have to win most of the delegates from those big states. A major loss in any of them could be fatal to his chances. He could afford to lose one or two of them narrowly, but then hed need to make up ground elsewhere hed probably have to win California by double digits, for example.
Sanders will also need to gain ground on Clinton in a series of medium-sized states such as Wisconsin, Indiana, Kentucky and New Mexico. Demographics suggest that these states could be close, but close wont be enough for Sanders. Hell need to win several of them easily.
None of this is all that likely. Frankly, none of it is at all likely. If the remaining states vote based on the same demographic patterns established by the previous ones, Clinton will probably gain further ground on Sanders. If they vote as state-by-state polling suggests they will, Clinton could roughly double her current advantage over Sanders and wind up winning the nomination by 400 to 500 pledged delegates.
But things can change, and polls can be wrong and so its worth doing the math to see what winning 988 more delegates would look like for Sanders. Call it a path-of-least-implausibility. If you think Sanders can meet or exceed these targets, then you can say with a straight face that you think hell win the nomination. If you think theyre too good to be true, then you cant. Heres the Bernie-miracle path I came up with:
SNIP