Why is Hillary's lead considered so big right now? Math (HRC Group)

[Godhumor]

Anyway, a lot of Berners want to make it through tomorrow and then utterly conquer the next three weeks. The entire race changes before NY and Bernie is in the driver's seat for that primary! He is the frontrunner, really! Except he is not. Really not. Following text from a piece I did in GDP.

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Bernie is going to have a good stretch, but his hope at making up the gap hinges on outperforming big states starting in later April, not the favorable stretch in the next few weeks.

After the 15th, there are only 373 pledged delegates up for grabs before NY. Just in overall terms, the following math comes into play:

If Bernie runs strong on Tuesday and manages to 50-50 split the entire day (Which he won't, but let's say he does), he is still down by the same 206 delegates he is today.

To get the full way back to that he needs to win over 77% of those 373 delegates before NY. A wipe-out of 290 to 84. Some states in the next few weeks will be close, and Hillary will be favored in Arizona's closed primary, probably by double digits. Arizona is the third largest delegate haul in that 3 week stretch, by the way.

So what is close to parity? Within 50? Even then he needs over 71% of all those delegates.

Now, let's assume that Hillary expands her lead by 50 on Tuesday (So I can reuse some of the same numbers, and it will be a lot closer to reality than a 50-50 split). To be at parity by NY, Bernie needs to win over 86% of all those delegates, which means multiple states where Hillary gets below the 15% voter threshold. That has only happened in Vermont so far, and even then just barely.

To be within 50 would be that 77% number from a few paragraphs before.

So let's go one step farther, let's say Bernie splits Arizona after splitting Tuesday. He would need to win 76% of the 298 remaining delegates before NY to be within 50 of Hillary by NY. If she increases her lead by 50 tomorrow and splits Arizona, he needs 85% of the delegates to be within 50.

So let's look at a more realistic scenario. Hillary increases her lead by 50 tomorrow and Bernie, even including Arizona, wins the next 3 weeks by an average of 60-40 in delegate split. He'll still be down over 180 delegates by NY. What about at 70-30? He will still be down 107.

Parity, hell even near parity as being defined by an over-generous 50 delegates, is simply not feasible at this stage in the game.