Why is Hillary's lead considered so big right now? Math (HRC Group)

[romana]

4. That's what I see

Last edited Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:28 PM - Edit history (1)

I play around with the delegate splits on a spreadsheet. Even if I gave everything after Tuesday until NY to Sanders 63/37 and then every race after that to Sanders 55/45, she still goes into the convention with more delegates. It's close, but she still has more, not including superdelegates. And that's being very kind to Sanders, IMO. He needs very big wins all the way down the line, especially in delegate rich states. While that's not impossible, it seems very unlikely that a shift of that magnitude would occur from a few ties in the rust belt.

He is going to probably outspend her from now until the end, though. We need to GOTV as much as possible. I'll be phone banking tonight.