Last edited Wed Sep 25, 2013, 11:59 AM - Edit history (2)
According to the Word Bank, China's economic growth in 2012 was 7.8%, for a GDP in constant $2005 dollars. This was down from a high of 14% in 2007. The average growth over the last decade has been about 10%.
They realized about $1650 of GDP per toe, a value that has been constant since 2009.
Let's assume the following:
- China's economic growth will average 7% pa over the next 6 years;
- that the energy productivity remains constant at $1650/toe;
- their build-out of renewables is as shown in the above graph, rising from 250 mtoe today to 600 mtoe in 2018; and
- Each marginal mtoe of renewables avoids 2 mtoe of carbon energy consumption.
Under these assumptions, in 2018 China's carbon-sourced energy consumption would have risen by 27% over today's value. This of course represents the same increase in CO2 output, from 9.2 GT today to 11.7 GT in 2018.
Looking out to 2025, with the same assumptions about growth in GDP and renewables, and the same marginal substitution rate of 1:2, we get this outcome:
GDP has more than doubled, from $4.5 trillion to almost $11 trillion in constant 2005 US dollars.
Renewable energy consumption has increased by a factor of 7, from 250 mtoe today to 1800 mtoe in 2018.
Carbon energy consumption has increased by 31%, to 3250 mtoe.
CO2 production has increased to about 12 GT/year.
Based on this, my bet is that we will not see China reduce their carbon emissions until after 2030, when the reductions will begin from a level much higher than today.
By that point, atmospheric CO2 levels will probably be breaking through 430 ppmv and still climbing.
It's not a pretty picture, and doesn't make me feel confident in the slightest. A lot depends on how close to reality the assumptions turn out to be. They could just as easily be wrong on either the optimistic or the pessimistic side.
Do you believe China will be able to do better than that?
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