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2016 Postmortem

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Segami

(14,923 posts)
Thu Oct 15, 2015, 02:59 PM Oct 2015

Millenials Are The Key To Democratic Success And Overwhelmingly, THEY WANT BERNIE [View all]


"..Democrats need to choose wisely this primary season. Catering to the voters they already can count on to turn out at the polls may not be the smartest move..."




Obama rode a wave of youth support to the Democratic nomination and the White House in 2008, connecting with them and motivating them to show up in November. In 2014, however, Democrats saw their Senate majority slip away as candidates across America ran to the center to appeal to the oft-cited-and-fawned-over "swing voters," and Millenials stayed home as a result.

Millenials (ie the 18-34 demographic) are the most fickle of all voter groups, and it's tough to get them to turn out. Older, mostly retired voters can be counted on to turn out regardless, but the trick to success is getting the Millenials excited. So then, who gets the Millenials excited? Overwhelmingly, the answer is Bernie Sanders.

The latest national Quinnipiac Poll breaks down favorability by age:


17. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?

....................... AGE IN YRS..............
....................... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Favorable.......... 48% 45% 40% 36%
Unfavorable....... 49 53 56 59
Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 2 3


22. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

....................... AGE IN YRS..............
....................... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Favorable.......... 47% 35% 35% 27%
Unfavorable....... 15 24 36 32
Hvn't hrd enough 37 40 28 39


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us09242015_ui47mfb.pdf



So while Hillary is underwater with Millenials at (-1%), Bernie sports a stunning +32% favorability rating, with -- and this is important to note -- 37% still yet to make up their mind. If the undecided voters break for Bernie at the same rate as the decideds, that will come out to a 75-24 spread for a 51% favorable rating for Bernie, giving him a whopping 52 point favorability lead over Hillary among Millenials. The age gap here is stark. Boomers may not be "feeling the Bern", but Millenials love Bernie, and it's the latter that Democrats are going to be counting on next November to put down their smartphones and show up at their nearest polling place to pull the lever.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/15/1432947/-Millenials-are-the-key-to-Democratic-success-and-overwhelmingly-they-want-Bernie
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Bernie is the overwhelming choice on my kid's dorm floor. Arugula Latte Oct 2015 #1
One look at that chart Segami Oct 2015 #2
Yes, they are actually driving his campaign. He definitely has reenergized them sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #3
All they have to do is show up to vote randr Oct 2015 #4
They will Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #12
12 years ago, the youth overwhelmingly WANTED DEAN... brooklynite Oct 2015 #5
Right. workinclasszero Oct 2015 #6
8 years ago, the youth overwhelmingly WANTED OBAMA.. frylock Oct 2015 #9
He's the "moderate Republican", right? brooklynite Oct 2015 #10
No, he's the Hope and Change guy.. frylock Oct 2015 #11
He kind of left us hoping for change unfortunately Fumesucker Oct 2015 #20
Yup, he is the liar TM99 Oct 2015 #30
...and then they "fell for it" in 2012? brooklynite Oct 2015 #33
I notice you don't dispute TM99 Oct 2015 #45
No, I don't dispute that some people VOTED for him as a progressive... brooklynite Oct 2015 #46
Yes, a lot of people did. TM99 Oct 2015 #49
The sequester wasn't so moderate AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #41
Different generation artislife Oct 2015 #17
I think it's fascinating that clinton supporters' vision for victory... Scootaloo Oct 2015 #26
I've been thinking for a while that neither party wants a real landslide victory Fumesucker Oct 2015 #32
Them and white males AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #43
2015 estimate - 83.1 MILLION Millennials in_cog_ni_to Oct 2015 #7
Unfortunately, they are the least reliable voting bloc: JaneyVee Oct 2015 #8
Oh, you found a Republican chart lying around WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #15
Keep your fingers crossed. nt artislife Oct 2015 #18
They can be motivated to vote if they think they have skin in the game Fumesucker Oct 2015 #22
Normally, yes AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #34
That appears to be the turnout for New York City in 2008, not the whole country. arcane1 Oct 2015 #42
NOTEWORTHY: 36% of all voters "haven't heard enough" yet about Bernie... reformist2 Oct 2015 #13
Ironically, after years of bashing them for not... WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #14
Repeatedly. nt artislife Oct 2015 #19
Cognitive Dissonance AgingAmerican Oct 2015 #35
I think I figured out a way to pin them down WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #39
Lots of Millenials for Bernie Facebook pages WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #16
Probably half of them link to "it's a cookbook" level snark Fumesucker Oct 2015 #21
Probably worth taking a look WhaTHellsgoingonhere Oct 2015 #25
Go to the polls Millenials - we didn't hover over your asses for nothing. :) polichick Oct 2015 #23
Yeah, we've been helicoptering for years and boy are our arms tired! Arugula Latte Oct 2015 #27
So true... polichick Oct 2015 #28
Bernie needs some helicopter parent outreach.. aidbo Oct 2015 #36
My kid who is old enough will definitely vote. Arugula Latte Oct 2015 #47
It's one thing to vote for president......will they vote down the line for D's?? and in the off a kennedy Oct 2015 #24
This message was self-deleted by its author Skidmore Oct 2015 #29
Am I reading that wrong? More millenials view Hillary "favorably" than Bernie. Renew Deal Oct 2015 #31
No,you're not reading it wrong.nt sufrommich Oct 2015 #37
No. That's a tie, assuming a MOE over 1 %. aidbo Oct 2015 #38
You're right Renew Deal Oct 2015 #44
You're reading it right. Check out the numbers for unfavorable n/t arcane1 Oct 2015 #40
It does feel like a 'young vs old school' primary. How do we coalesce the two groups? LettuceSea Oct 2015 #48
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