If Donald Trump is electable

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Trump will also get a larger share of the Hispanic vote

They always demonstrate more benefit of a doubt to an incumbent than would seem logical based on issues.

Besides, the GOP has been quietly courting the Hispanic vote behind the scenes while we remained fixated on 2016. I've seen it here in Miami. Their Spanish language commercials are light years more sophisticated and well messaged. It's like we desperately throw things together in the final weeks. Rick Scott reinvented himself largely due to how he was perceived to handle hurricane preparation, and also by learning just enough Spanish to cut ads and offer a few canned sentences during appearances.

Our problem is the need to win the popular vote by at least 3% to feel comfortable about matters. I remember in 2016 being started at a 538 estimate that Hillary had less than a 10% chance to win the electoral college if she won the popular vote by less than 1%. That's how poor the distribution is right now. So when you see a poll of a Democrat leading Trump by 2% nationally, it means Trump actually is ahead in terms of the electoral college likelihood.