Reply #11: South Dakota and Louisiana are critical.... [View All]

[election_2004]

The Dems hold a Senate majority by a mere ONE VOTE right now. One net loss or net gain could literally tip the balance.

It's unlikely that Johnson will be able to run for reelection in South Dakota. With Governor Rounds eying Johnson's Senate seat, it might be too daunting for even Stephanie Herseth to challenge him (I personally believe Herseth should wait until 2010 to challenge Thune).

Louisiana will also be tough for Landrieu to hold, especially if Hillary Clinton is the presidential nominee. It's unclear whether Bobby Jindal will run for Governor in 2007 or challenge Landrieu in '08. But it's Louisiana...so even the screwiest nutball who the GOP puts up could have a shot (after all, David Vitter wasn't even forced into a runoff in '04).

Ultimately, even if Lautenberg retires, I believe NJ is safe. They just need a charismatic Dem contender...doesn't matter if it's a veteran like Bob Andrews or a relative newcomer like Nia Gill.

On the vulnerable Republican side, Oregon and Minnesota are ripe for overthrows. Gordon Smith might end up as the George Allen of 2008. Coleman can be easily defeated in Minnesota, but it will be hard if the DFL caves and hands the nomination to Al Franken (personally, I believe that Becky Lourey would play better than Franken in rural MN).

Oh, and New Mexico is potentially up for grabs...although less so if Domenici runs for reelection. Just don't expect Richardson to run for that seat...he wants to run for president.