Reply #114: All things considered.... [View All]

[Drachasor]

Obama has a huge advantage with the popular vote. A revote in Michigan (which will happen), will give him tons of votes, even if he loses, so Hillary won't be able to catch up to him there. A revote in Florida will likewise narrow the difference between Hillary and Obama there (so she'll get relatively less votes there). Those revotes are definitely going to happen. As with pledged delegates, this advantage is nearly impossible for Hillary to surmount.

Now consider the fact that Obama would likely have a larger victory margin if caucus states had had primaries (even if the percentage of the vote was closer, there'd be a lot more votes), and he is leading in national polls (for a few days Hillary took the lead, but now and overall Obama has had the advantage here for some time). It's pretty clear the Obama is the preferred candidate by almost all the significant measures. The "big State" argument is the only thing Hillary can "win," but when you consider that almost all the big States go to Democrats anyhow, and that Obama will probably win Ohio in the general anyhow (he brings out huge numbers of voters many/most HRC voters would vote for him if Hillary endorses him -- and she will, and the Republicans really don't have much of a chance of winning against Hillary or Obama), this remaining argument falls apart.

Lastly, Obama certainly wants to find a way to count Florida and Michigan, and his campaign seems happy with having a revote. Claiming he "doesn't want them to count" is silly.