The biggest clue that Obama will be the nominee is the SD trend of the past 2 months [View All]

[cali]

Over the past 2 months, since Super Tuesday, Obama has picked up 70 SD endorsement to Clinton's 9. And it's her lack of SD endorsements in this period that's the problem for her, even more than his prowess at raking them in. Obama is now only about 30 SD endorsements shy of Clinton- and the vast majority of her SD endorsements came prior to a vote being cast- clearly by people who saw her as the inevitable nominee. Once the inevitability factor crumbled, the SD endorsements dried up for her. As in other departments, it seems Clinton has an SD ceiling.

No, it's not absolute. Conceivably, Obama's candidacy could implode and SDs could put Hillary over the top, but it is unlikely. My guess is that by the time PA rolls around, Obama will have further cut into Clinton's now slim SD lead. He already leads in elected SD endorsements- in other words, their peers. And then there's the "Pelosi number". And Obama is inching up on that.

Will enough SDs wait until the convention to vote, thus leaving the party without a nominee until the end of August? Very, very doubtful. Once the voting is over, they'll push someone- Obama, unless he implodes- over the 2025 line. And I see no scenario where Clinton stays in once that happens. SDs and party bigwigs do not want this going to the Convention floor.