Popular vote update after Clinton gains over 210,000 votes. Margin down to less than 1% [View All]

[jackson_dem]

The popular vote with FL should be the real target. She can win that and while Obama killed a re-vote in Florida and will probably disenfranchise the state at the convention the superdelegates cannot ignore the voices of 1.7 million people in one of the highest turnout states thus far. If she wins the popular vote and wins most of the remaining states the superdelegates will have all they need to select the most electable candidate. The candidate who ends with momentum will be leading in opinion polls by June. You can't argue the "will of the people has been overturned" when you lost the popular vote and are down 10 in every national poll.

Popular Vote 49.3 - 47.4 Obama +1.9

Popular Vote (w/FL)48.3 - 47.5 Obama +0.8


Popular Vote Total14,361,47349.2%13,858,18447.5% Obama +503,289+1.7%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 14,695,55749.3%14,082,04647.2% Obama +613,511+2.1%

Popular Vote (w/FL)14,937,68748.3%14,729,17047.6% Obama +208,517+0.7%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,271,77148.4%14,953,03247.4% Obama +318,739+1.0%

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)**14,937,68747.4%15,057,47947.8% Clinton +119,792+0.4%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 15,271,77147.5%15,281,34147.5% Obama +110,222+0.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html>RCP

How Clinton can win the popular vote

Calculate your own scenario. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

NC: Obama will get 85-91% of the black vote again. Let's give him 89%, which is what he ultimately got in PA. The x factor for the margin of victory is the white vote. We know the black vote has been consistent in all 43 states. Obama is unlikely to win the white vote but the question is how bad will he lose it? Will it be 21% like in MS or can he reach the 40's? We will have to see what the polls show. Let's give him 38% for the sake of argument since that is what he got on Pennsylvania. Plug these numbers in and estimate the AA vote is 1/3 of the electorate and Obama wins 55-45. Obama gains 125k

IN: Let's give Clinton a 10 point win there in Obama's neighboring state. +80k for Clinton

WV: This should be a blowout. It is almost all white and very working class. Obama got slaughtered among such voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio. She leads there 58-29 right now. Give Clinton a 30 point win. +94k for Clinton

KY: The same as WV except to a lesser degree. Let's give her 25 points in KY (she is up 36 in the latest KY poll with Obama barely registering at 26%). +112k for Clinton

OR: This is a wild card. Obama is up 10 there right now. Let's assume Clinton's momentum after today and 5/6, 5/13 cuts that down to 5. Then let's also factor in that Obama purchases another 10 points. Give Obama a 15 point win. +89k for Obama

PR: The biggest wild card of all because we don't know what turnout will be. 1 million is a conservative estimate. Let's give Clinton a 15 point win here. +150k for Clinton

MT/SD: Both are wild cards. We have only one poll since voting began between these two states. It has Obama up 10 in South Dakota. We can assume a similar margin in Montana. This should be cut down due to Clinton's momentum. Keep in mind these are primaries so Obama can't win based on 1.9% turnout. Still let's give Obama 10 point wins in both states. Obama gains 23k combining MT/SD

Net gain: 409k

YES SHE CAN!