Reply #18: Let me explain what I see there... [View All]

[Essene]

We've been leaning right as a nation since the Reagan years and that implies a lot of basic assumptions, identity politics and ideological entanglements.

I'd like to see Obama lay claim to the center, and help america get comfortable with being progressive. That will take more than 1 election. It will require Obama and the Dems to lead from the center, but embracing progressive ideas in doing so. In other words, I'd like to see them embrace moderate republicans and fiscal conservatives when applicable... and to strongly lean progressive on social issues when applicable.

The source for the "shift" maps is the NY Times. The party identifier chart is Pew (although there is newer data out there).

In 1992, we saw the beginning of the end of the Reagan era conservative coalition, which dramatically had shifted our politics to the right and around a right-center identity. There were many democrats who aligned with Reagan.

I think that struggle continued between 1992 and 1996, with the 1994 "republican revolution." On the GOP side we saw the crafting of a new coalition in 1994 around culture wars, around social conservative ideas rather than a more inclusive fiscal conservatism. I think we've been in a holding pattern in political boundaries since 1996-2000.

I think we've seen the 1994 conservative coalition collapse since 2006... less than we've seen a major ideological shift. That's why i think we've seen so many people leaving the GOP to become independents (not democrats).

That's how i see it.

When i look at the 2008 county breakdown compared to 1992, we can see how there remains a very large chunk that's either the same or RED. In other words, we're still right of 1992... which was still


Look this map showing the ratios of voting by county in 1992... notice all that blue and a lot of "white area."


Now compare it to 2004. Notice how much more red there is and how there's less "white area."


Now notice the LACK of real change in 2008... but moreso a matter of intensity. In other words, we're still mostly stuck in the same pattern we've seen for 8 years... although many jumped ship from the GOP to become independents... and many more came out in support for the Dems in general. That's not the same as an ideological shift, in my view.