Reply #53: I googled "Novak lose 40 seats" - he's been wrong before and before that [View All]

[UTUSN]

These two links are from wingnuts. I couldn't find links specific to past NOVAK predictions, although I remember his being wrong. The first link says BARONE was spot-on in 1994, when nobody else was close. The freepers in the 2nd link appear to be objective (I'm choking on my own words here).

To repeat, these links are from a Google search, NOT from MY frequenting wingnut sites.

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http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/Comment/DavidKeene/031406.html

This year, Barone is cautioning Republicans not to panic this early, pointing out that November is a long way off and that the 1994 trend wasn’t clear until much closer to Election Day. This, he says, gives Republicans a chance to avoid the disaster that struck the Democrats two decades ago.


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1690043/posts

.... Novak's record has been mixed. He underestimated GOP strength in '94, saying they would gain 46 seats. That time I was glad he was wrong. But I remember way back to 1984 when he was on McLaughlin saying the Repubs would gain 22-25 in the coming Reagan landslide. They took only 14. Still, Novak was closer in his estimates than the other prognosticators were. So I don't reject his projection completely. It does sound a bit optimistic for the Dems though. ....

I have a folder on my computer entitled "Crow eaters" which I've kept since the 2000 election campaign. In it are stored predictions, polls, op-eds, etc., all forcasting doom and gloom for the GOP and Bush. Needless to say, they make for very amusing reading now. This article will now join that collection. ....

Aren't we scheduled to catch Bin Laden in late October? ....

Honestly, I think they were predicting a wash in 2002 or slight Democrat gains and the Democrats ended up losing several seats, largely due to redistricting. In 2004 they also predicted the status quo and that's what happened outside of Texas, with a few incumbents (Burns, Hill, Crane) knocked off for personal reasons or because the partisan pull of their district went too far in a Presidential year.

The Democrats often led in the generic poll earlier in the year, but not by as much as they have in some polls this year, although the last few polls have shown closer results. Polls before election day in 2002 showed Republicans leading in the generic poll in some cases.

So, 27-30 is definitely the outer edge of predictions right now, but they haven't predicted apocalypse for Republicans in the past like they are this year. ....

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