Donald Trump's chances of winning the November 2024 presidential election are declining, according to a new aggregation of polls.

FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker, which was originally published on July 8 and updated on July 16, shows Joe Biden with a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

According to the tracker, Biden is favored to win in 534 out of 1,000 of FiveThirtyEight's simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 462. The poll also shows that the simulations indicate that Biden is on track for a three-point win.

The polling website said its forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign "fundamentals," such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency.

It comes after a Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, found that Trump's margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina.

Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June.

Donald Trump has lashed out at several Republican congressmen after an amendment to defund criminal prosecutions of the former president failed by "only one vote."

In a post on Truth Social he attacked Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson after he "stupidly" voted "no" on the amendment that would have prohibited the use of federal and state funding for the prosecution of any presidential candidate prior to November's election.

The amendments to the Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (CJS) Appropriations Bill, introduced by Georgia Rep. Andrew Clyde, failed to pass by a vote of 25-26.

Trump also blamed House Republicans on the Appropriations Committee who did not show up to vote on the amendment.

Writing on Truth Social, Trump said: "Just heard from Great Congressman Andrew Clyde of Georgia that the Amendment to Defund the Prosecution of a Presidential Candidate prior to November's Election did not pass, 26-25.

"It lost by only one vote, because one Republican, Mike Simpson of Idaho, stupidly voted NO, and two 'Republicans,' David Valadao of California and Dan Newhouse of Washington, the only two remaining Impeachers in the House of President Donald J. Trump, didn't show up to vote,' Trump added.

"They must have had more important things to do. Also, Mike Garcia of California, David Joyce of Ohio, and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, didn't show up to vote. Thanks very much, fellas, for your great support!"

Donald Trump's remarks prove he knows exactly who's behind the far-right plan to use his office to reshape America

Donald Trump’s backtracking on Project 2025 didn’t seem to fool many – aside from a few hard-line loyalists who expressed betrayal – but apparent proof of his knowledge and endorsement of the far-reaching plan further weakens his claim that he knows “nothing.”

In an April 2022 speech before the Heritage Foundation – the ultra-right group behind the 922-page policy manifesto – Trump acknowledged exactly the kind of work they're doing and applauded them for “lay[ing] the groundwork” for his next administration.

“They’re going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do,” Trump said of the Heritage Foundation and their efforts to – as they describe on the Project 2025 website – “pave the way” for Trump’s next administration.

Americans divide 46-47% between Biden and Trump if the election were today, almost identical to a 44-46% ABC/Ipsos poll result in April. Among registered voters (though there’s plenty of time to register) it’s an absolute tie, 46-46%.

Were Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, vote choices are 49-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults (and 49-47% among registered voters). Harris’ 49% is slightly better than Biden’s 46%, although she doesn’t have a statistically significant lead over Trump.