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Fiendish Thingy
Fiendish Thingy's Journal
Fiendish Thingy's Journal
October 22, 2024
Dont despair- stop watching the polls, turn off cable news, stay off social media. Take a walk, or even better, take a friend to the polls!
Kamala Harris on those feeling despair over the election:
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1848475229208613355?Dont despair- stop watching the polls, turn off cable news, stay off social media. Take a walk, or even better, take a friend to the polls!
October 11, 2024
Lots of critical information at the link, information that I have not seen a single media outlet , print or broadcast, discuss at all, let alone in any depth or detail.
This law is sure to be tested this election cycle.
Topics that examine the details of the law at the link include:
Requires that states appoint electors on Election Day in accordance with pre-existing law and eliminates the concept of failed elections. [Section 102]
Adds clarity to the process by which state officials ascertain and certify their election results to Congress. [Section 104]
Gives federal courts a clear and expedited role in ensuring that states send lawful certifications of election results to Congress. [Section 104]
Makes it absolutely clear that the Vice Presidents role in the electoral vote-counting process is ministerial. [Section 109]
Makes it more difficult for members of Congress to make frivolous objections to state election results. [Section 109]
Clarifies how a majority of appointed electors will be calculated. [Section 109]
That last section demolishes the myth about throwing the election to the house:
Understanding the Electoral Count Act of 2022
https://protectdemocracy.org/work/understanding-the-electoral-count-reform-act-of-2022/Lots of critical information at the link, information that I have not seen a single media outlet , print or broadcast, discuss at all, let alone in any depth or detail.
This law is sure to be tested this election cycle.
Topics that examine the details of the law at the link include:
Requires that states appoint electors on Election Day in accordance with pre-existing law and eliminates the concept of failed elections. [Section 102]
Adds clarity to the process by which state officials ascertain and certify their election results to Congress. [Section 104]
Gives federal courts a clear and expedited role in ensuring that states send lawful certifications of election results to Congress. [Section 104]
Makes it absolutely clear that the Vice Presidents role in the electoral vote-counting process is ministerial. [Section 109]
Makes it more difficult for members of Congress to make frivolous objections to state election results. [Section 109]
Clarifies how a majority of appointed electors will be calculated. [Section 109]
That last section demolishes the myth about throwing the election to the house:
The 12th Amendment provides that [t]he person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be the majority of the whole number of Electors appointed. Because the total number of electors that may be appointed (and usually are appointed) by the states is 538, a candidate with 270 or more electoral votes wins the election. But neither the Constitution nor the original ECA made clear what happens to the calculation if either a state fails to appoint some or all of its allotted electors, or Congress rejects electoral votes.
This legislation addresses this ambiguity by providing that in cases in which Congress rejects the appointment of electors as unlawful, the whole number of electors appointedthe denominator in the calculationwill be reduced. The provision makes it more difficult to manipulate the process by attempting to deprive a candidate of a majority in order to trigger a contingent election of the president by the House of Representatives or the vice president by the Senate (as provided for in the 12th Amendment). Because the ECRA does not explicitly address electoral votes that are rejected by Congress as not lawfully cast by appointed electors (i.e., not regularly given), the denominator presumably would not change in that circumstance.
This legislation addresses this ambiguity by providing that in cases in which Congress rejects the appointment of electors as unlawful, the whole number of electors appointedthe denominator in the calculationwill be reduced. The provision makes it more difficult to manipulate the process by attempting to deprive a candidate of a majority in order to trigger a contingent election of the president by the House of Representatives or the vice president by the Senate (as provided for in the 12th Amendment). Because the ECRA does not explicitly address electoral votes that are rejected by Congress as not lawfully cast by appointed electors (i.e., not regularly given), the denominator presumably would not change in that circumstance.
October 5, 2024
Unless the aggregators suddenly start excluding Red Wave polls from their averages (RCP definitely wont, and its highly unlikely 538 will either), it will mean polling averages from now until Election Day cannot be trusted.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early
Additional essential reading on the current state of polling:
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
The fact of the matter is, for the next 30 days we will essentially be flying blind, with only the knowledge that Harris has a superior GOTV ground game to comfort us.
Rosenberg: Red Wave pollsters step up their work this week
Red Wave Pollsters Stepped Up Their Work This Week - The red wavers stepped up their activity this past week, releasing at least 20 polls across the battlegrounds. Its a sign that they are worried about the public polling in both the Presidential and the Senate, and have dramatically escalated their efforts to push the polling averages to the right and make the election look redder than it is. As in 2022, these polls usually between 2 and 4 points more Republican than the independent polling so when there a lot of them they can move the averages rightward.
Here is what was released in the past week:
Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PA
Cygnal - IA
Insider Advantage - AZ, GA, NC, NV
McLaughlin - FL
Mitchell Comms - MI
OnMessage - PA
Patriot Polling - PA
Remington - MI, MT, NV, PA, WI
RMG - National, FL, MI, NC, TX
Texas Gun Rights - TX
Trafalgar - MI, PA, WI
Victory Insights - FL
While they released polls in many states this week the states that have received the most red wave polls few weeks are Montana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 in their corrupt Electoral College map. Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.
(Snip)
As I wrote in my last look at this rancid project, it is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.
Here is what was released in the past week:
Emerson - National, AZ, NC, PA
Cygnal - IA
Insider Advantage - AZ, GA, NC, NV
McLaughlin - FL
Mitchell Comms - MI
OnMessage - PA
Patriot Polling - PA
Remington - MI, MT, NV, PA, WI
RMG - National, FL, MI, NC, TX
Texas Gun Rights - TX
Trafalgar - MI, PA, WI
Victory Insights - FL
While they released polls in many states this week the states that have received the most red wave polls few weeks are Montana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Over the past 10 days, depending on how you characterize the pollsters, they released at least 5 and as many 7 polls in Pennsylvania alone. Their recent flood of polls in NC and PA tipped the Real Clear Politics polling average for each state to Trump, which then in turn got Trump to 281 in their corrupt Electoral College map. Yes, in Real Clear Politics Trump is now winning the election due to their gamesmanship.
(Snip)
As I wrote in my last look at this rancid project, it is time for those who analyze polls to start acknowledging that there is now a third type of poll - the red wave, right-aligned narrative polling that only exist for a single purpose - to move the polling averages to the right. They are exploiting the toss it in the averages and everything will work out philosophy of these sites to once again launder these polls and game the averages - and thus our understanding of the election. Party leaders should expect them to keep these polls coming, and keep working the averages until it looks like Trump is winning in all polling averages. It is what they did in 2022, and it worked. They are doing it again this time, and once again it is working as the averages are moving and everyone is treating this movement like an organic rather than a deeply corrupt process.
Unless the aggregators suddenly start excluding Red Wave polls from their averages (RCP definitely wont, and its highly unlikely 538 will either), it will mean polling averages from now until Election Day cannot be trusted.
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-hungry-harris-campaign-early
Additional essential reading on the current state of polling:
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
The fact of the matter is, for the next 30 days we will essentially be flying blind, with only the knowledge that Harris has a superior GOTV ground game to comfort us.
September 26, 2024
In 2016, I experienced the desolation of my candidate for president losing after the most respected polling experts told me she had a 71.4 percent, 85 percent, 98.2 percent, and even 99 percent chance of winning. As a historian, I was studying how Ronald Reagans runaway landslide in 1980 was proceeded by every pollster but one supremely confident that the race was just about tied. Ive just finished a fine book published in 2020 that confirms an intuition Ive been chewing on since then. It turns out this is practically the historical norm. W. Joseph Campbells Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections demonstratesfor the first time, strangely enough, given the robust persuasiveness of its conclusionsthat presidential polls are almost always wrong, consistently, in deeply patterned ways.
Update- heres one of the most impactful sections of the whole article:
He also EVISCERATES (sorry for click bait caps) Nate Silver and his fall from grace).
Bottom line:
Nobody really knows anything about who the potential winner of the election will be.
Methadone for polling addicts
If this article doesnt get you to quit allowing every poll to induce massive despair or euphoria, then you just might be beyond help.
https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/
(Should be no paywall)
The whole article is essential reading, but here is the first paragraph:
In 2016, I experienced the desolation of my candidate for president losing after the most respected polling experts told me she had a 71.4 percent, 85 percent, 98.2 percent, and even 99 percent chance of winning. As a historian, I was studying how Ronald Reagans runaway landslide in 1980 was proceeded by every pollster but one supremely confident that the race was just about tied. Ive just finished a fine book published in 2020 that confirms an intuition Ive been chewing on since then. It turns out this is practically the historical norm. W. Joseph Campbells Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections demonstratesfor the first time, strangely enough, given the robust persuasiveness of its conclusionsthat presidential polls are almost always wrong, consistently, in deeply patterned ways.
Update- heres one of the most impactful sections of the whole article:
Many pollsters decisions about methodology are by necessity subjective, even arbitrary. Campbell lists a quick half-dozen: how they list a candidates job title; the order in which the choices are stated; the gender of the interviewer; whether its done by phone, internet, or in person; even the day of the week. The pollsters can likewise be arbitrary once the numbers come in. Lost in a Gallup notes a fascinating experiment carried out by Nate Cohn for The New York Times. He had four pollsters interpret the same raw data from a 2016 poll of Florida. Their choices in how to weight ranged from Clinton winning by four percentage points to Trump winning by one.
Cohn concluded, Clearly, the reported margin of error due to sampling doesnt even come close to capturing total survey error There really is a lot of flexibility for pollsters to make choices that generate a fundamentally different result.
Cohn concluded, Clearly, the reported margin of error due to sampling doesnt even come close to capturing total survey error There really is a lot of flexibility for pollsters to make choices that generate a fundamentally different result.
He also EVISCERATES (sorry for click bait caps) Nate Silver and his fall from grace).
Bottom line:
Nobody really knows anything about who the potential winner of the election will be.
September 8, 2024
Larry Sabato says current swing state polls are unreliable
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1832763586940178498?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1832763586940178498%7Ctwgr%5E60100c253d47d129859cfa74c58943869e113826%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdigbysblog.net%2F
September 2, 2024
For Labor Day: Billy Bragg - "There Is Power In A Union"
?si=WVSk-I6vnJDo5E93
September 2, 2024
For Labor Day: Woody Guthrie via OCMS
?si=pSSjZFwvY9UETAzq
August 26, 2024
P.S. Marc Elias is now a lawyer for the Harris campaign)
Democracy Docket: WHAT HAPPENS IF ELECTION OFFICIALS REFUSE TO CERTIFY RESULTS?
(All caps title because so many folks are so confused and anxious about this issue)
WATCH THE WHOLE DAMN VIDEO!
(If you do, youll probably sleep better)
P.S. Marc Elias is now a lawyer for the Harris campaign)
August 22, 2024
Michigan Secretary Of State reads angry election tweets
Lots of excellent mythbusting in this video:
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