Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has unpaid bills in at least six cities for costs associated with his rallies and campaign events over the years, VERIFY confirmed.

Those cities are: Albuquerque, New Mexico; El Paso, Texas; Erie, Pennsylvania; Mesa, Arizona; Lebanon, Ohio; and Spokane, Washington.

It’s unclear, however, whether he’s legally obligated to pay all of them. The Center for Public Integrity, which reported on the Trump campaign’s unpaid bills in 2019, said that in many cases, there are no signed contracts between the municipal governments and the Trump campaign. That means the cities may not have legal recourse to recoup those funds.

Here’s what we know about Trump’s unpaid bills in these six cities.

Obviously, this gives us a forecast challenge, but I think we’re in two very distinct camps right now.

Camp 1: A strong tropical storm or hurricane that tracks off the Texas coast toward Louisiana arriving Wednesday-ish.

Camp 2: A depression or loosely organized tropical storm with a lot of rain that impacts Texas, especially at the coast Tuesday through Thursday, coming ashore between Galveston and Cameron, LA.

I am not a betting man, but I would probably say the odds right now are 70/30 in favor of camp 2, but that 30 percent is a weighty one given that the system could be a hurricane in that scenario. Normally, I’d discount the ICON model, but given its performance this season and the consistency it has had with track and intensity here, I think there’s merit to considering it with this particular system.