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dave_p

dave_p's Journal
dave_p's Journal
September 13, 2015

Now this is REALLY interesting

This isn't so outlandish as folk may think, it's been brewing for a long time (since before bin Laden's death 4+ years ago, which by the way I think was a huge blunder, as I hope to explain).

For one thing, at its most basic level, IS in its spacious Mid-East safe zone has been stripping support from the beleaguered aQ, stuck as they are in caves or in international limbo: that'd piss anybody off, even Republicans, some of whom might not mind the cave part so much.

Then there's the question of tactics. I'm really surprised this comes from Zawahiri, who I'd always considered bin Laden's gorilla. y'know, the big dumb guy who rouses the hicks while the other one quotes Voltaire or some other intellectual stuff that the rest of us never bothered to read. ObL certainly wasn't happy with the inclinations of what was to become ISIL - just too bloody, to fellow Muslims. Even steeped in Qutbist nihilism as he was, he saw this was no way to win friends and influence people.

Probably bigger was the issue of strategy. AQ never sought to promote its own caliph-type leader: the Wahhabism that was bin Laden's greater inspiration had even seen off one would-be caliph (a pretty sorry last-ditch affair) in the 1920s, and not even its Saudi dynastic ally had dared to revive the title. Somebody out there's presumably pure enough, but it sure as hell isn't some crazed Iraqi halfwit.

There's actually precious little uniting the two factions. AQ wants war against the US in retaliation for the perceived occupation of Saudi Arabia and the ending of the good old days in Afghanistan. IS wants its Caliphate now, lots of beheadings etc, and doesn't give a damn about the west. For now. It will.

Why was killing bin Laden dumb? Because he'd have brought this split about two or three years ago, such is a global jihadist leader's pique at being upstaged by some provincial yokel. IS's flamboyant bloodlust would still have won over the uber-crazies, but the process would have been slowed, maybe sufficiently to prepare for today's horror and develop intelligent policy.

For now, Zawahiri is your friend. You can kill him in a few years. But not yet.

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Member since: Tue Dec 19, 2006, 06:02 PM
Number of posts: 1,650
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