tgards79
tgards79's JournalBTRTN: Preview of New York's 3rd Congressional District Special Election
"George S"antos will have a D-List celebrity career while on his way to becoming an answer to a trivia question and a historical footnote. His bizarre run in the limelight as the U.S. representative in New York’s 3rd District ended last December when the dysfunctional GOP-led House finally expelled him, ended a near two-year saga. It took that long to dislodge the fabulist because the GOP was loathe to give up a single vote while their hold on the House was so slim. Santos’s absence was sorely felt when Speaker Mike Johnson’s effort to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas fell, embarrassingly, by a single vote. 'Remember me?' Santos mockingly tweeted after the vote.That vote certainly underlined how crucial this swing district is right now. The GOP is planning to attempt to impeach Mayorkas again on Tuesday, the same day as the special election to replace Santos. This is the one day that they can do this with at least some confidence, because ailing Majority Leader Steve Scalise will be back as that desperately needed extra vote, a vote that would be offset if they waited any further if the Democrats flip Santos’s seat.
The race pits Democrat, and former NY3 rep, Tom Suozzi, who quit the seat to run (unsuccessfully) for New York governor in 2022, against GOP candidate (and political neophyte) Mazi Melesa Pilip. NY3 comprises most of Nassau County in Long Island and a small part of Queens...."
Continue here...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/02/btrtn-preview-of-new-yorks-3rd.html
BTRTN: Preview of New York's 3rd Congressional District Special Election
"George S"antos will have a D-List celebrity career while on his way to becoming an answer to a trivia question and a historical footnote. His bizarre run in the limelight as the U.S. representative in New York’s 3rd District ended last December when the dysfunctional GOP-led House finally expelled him, ended a near two-year saga. It took that long to dislodge the fabulist because the GOP was loathe to give up a single vote while their hold on the House was so slim. Santos’s absence was sorely felt when Speaker Mike Johnson’s effort to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas fell, embarrassingly, by a single vote. 'Remember me?' Santos mockingly tweeted after the vote.That vote certainly underlined how crucial this swing district is right now. The GOP is planning to attempt to impeach Mayorkas again on Tuesday, the same day as the special election to replace Santos. This is the one day that they can do this with at least some confidence, because ailing Majority Leader Steve Scalise will be back as that desperately needed extra vote, a vote that would be offset if they waited any further if the Democrats flip Santos’s seat.
The race pits Democrat, and former NY3 rep, Tom Suozzi, who quit the seat to run (unsuccessfully) for New York governor in 2022, against GOP candidate (and political neophyte) Mazi Melesa Pilip. NY3 comprises most of Nassau County in Long Island and a small part of Queens...."
Continue here...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/02/btrtn-preview-of-new-yorks-3rd.html
BTRTN New Hampshire Preview: It's All Over but for the Incessant Shouting
Born To Run The Numbers provides its prediction for the New Hampshire Primary:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/01/btrtn-new-hampshire-preview-its-all.html
Excerpts: "It was a nice fantasy while it lasted, and we at BTRTN certainly explored it thoroughly, even as we saw it as the longshot it truly was. We even gave it a cute name, “The Haley Mary.” But the notion that Nikki Haley could somehow defy the odds and find a path to the GOP nomination died in the ice-cold cornfields of Iowa, by the margin of about 2,500 votes.... With those votes, Haley would have come in second, Trump would have failed to achieve 50% of the vote, and DeSantis would likely have dropped out immediately. The free media would have been all about a surging Haley and a vulnerable Trump, and the prospect of a highly competitive two-person race in New Hampshire. A big win by Haley there might have given her the Big Mo she would have needed to challenge in South Carolina and thus contend Super Tuesday..."
"But now Trump is on the verge of sending Haley packing as well. BTRTN predicts Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire primary by a decisive margin, in the +20 point range. There will be no 2024 version of “contrarian” Granite Staters snubbing their noses at the Iowans and anointing their own winner, who has invariably gone on to the win the GOP nomination. Instead, they will validate the Hawkeye State’s choice for the first time since, well, never. No GOP nominee has ever swept Iowa and New Hampshire (that did not feature a sitting president) since the birth of the Iowa caucus in 1976..."
"Just for the record, the pre/post-Christie/Ramaswamy/Hutchinson/DeSantis polling seems to indicate that of the 23 percentage points the four held in New Hampshire before they dropped out, 18 went to Trump and 7 to Haley (one or both of the pair also picked up a few undecided points). Haley did worse than she must have hoped in that fallout, since it would not have been unreasonable to assume she would garner almost all of Christie's voters plus Hutchinson's single point, for a total of +12, but she just managed a little more than half of that. This is perhaps a sign of some New Hampshire voters sensing inevitability."
BTRTN: Who Will Be Elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame? Who SHOULD Be? An In-Septh Analysis...
"It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF) ballot. The BBWAA voting is underway now and the results will be announced on January 23, 2024. Each year we at BTRTN analyze the ballot – in-depth, analytically -- to answer two questions:
1) Which nominees do we predict will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the BBWAA?
2) Which nominees deserve to be in the HOF, based on our own analysis (and opinions)?
The two lists are never identical...."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html
BTRTN: Who Will Be Elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame? Who SHOULD Be? An In-Depth Analysis...
"It’s that time of year again…the votes have begun to be tabulated for the Baseball Writers Association of American (BBWAA) Hall of Fame (HOF) ballot. The BBWAA voting is underway now and the results will be announced on January 23, 2024. Each year we at BTRTN analyze the ballot – in-depth, analytically -- to answer two questions:
1) Which nominees do we predict will be elected in this year’s voting, receiving at least 75% of the vote of the BBWAA?
2) Which nominees deserve to be in the HOF, based on our own analysis (and opinions)?
The two lists are never identical...."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-our-annual-analytically-based.html
Balanced, Detailed Article on 2024 Presidential Election with Five Conclusions
"Among many other things, the Israel-Hamas war is a reminder of how unforeseen events suddenly overwhelm the global/political scene, like the bubbling lava flow from a suddenly active volcano obliterates the existing landscape. All other news has been submerged, and the prevailing wisdom about the electoral environment now must be recalibrated, as it is inevitably when new issues arise. It would be wise to remember this point in the context of the 2024 election, particularly when confronted with polling that is reported with pseudo-disclaiming language such as “if the election were held today.” The 2024 election is not being held today, and indeed will not be held for nearly another year, when the electoral environment will likely be radically different, as the war progresses and many other issues wax and wane.
But we can still make judgments about today’s political environment, and so we offer, with caution, five broad conclusions to set the stage for what is certain to be – yet again – the most consequential presidential election of modern times, if not ever in our nation’s history... "
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-look-at-2024-presidential-race.html
BTRTN: A Look at the 2024 Presidential Race, One Year Out
"Among many other things, the Israel-Hamas war is a reminder of how unforeseen events suddenly overwhelm the global/political scene, like the bubbling lava flow from a suddenly active volcano obliterates the existing landscape. All other news has been submerged, and the prevailing wisdom about the electoral environment now must be recalibrated, as it is inevitably when new issues arise. It would be wise to remember this point in the context of the 2024 election, particularly when confronted with polling that is reported with pseudo-disclaiming language such as “if the election were held today.” The 2024 election is not being held today, and indeed will not be held for nearly another year, when the electoral environment will likely be radically different, as the war progresses and many other issues wax and wane.But we can still make judgments about today’s political environment, and so we offer, with caution, five broad conclusions to set the stage for what is certain to be – yet again – the most consequential presidential election of modern times, if not ever in our nation’s history... "
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-look-at-2024-presidential-race.html
BTRTN: A Look at the 2024 Presidential Race, One Year Out
"Among many other things, the Israel-Hamas war is a reminder of how unforeseen events suddenly overwhelm the global/political scene, like the bubbling lava flow from a suddenly active volcano obliterates the existing landscape. All other news has been submerged, and the prevailing wisdom about the electoral environment now must be recalibrated, as it is inevitably when new issues arise. It would be wise to remember this point in the context of the 2024 election, particularly when confronted with polling that is reported with pseudo-disclaiming language such as “if the election were held today.” The 2024 election is not being held today, and indeed will not be held for nearly another year, when the electoral environment will likely be radically different, as the war progresses and many other issues wax and wane.But we can still make judgments about today’s political environment, and so we offer, with caution, five broad conclusions to set the stage for what is certain to be – yet again – the most consequential presidential election of modern times, if not ever in our nation’s history... "
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-look-at-2024-presidential-race.html
BTRTN: Republican Debate... Nikki Haley Wins the "Scum Scrum"
"Maybe not quite scaling that Mount Rushmore of debate moments, we nonetheless heard a zinger for the ages last night. Nikki Haley has made her contempt for Vivek Ramaswamy clear for some time now, having opined in the last debate that “every time I hear you, I feel a little bit dumber for what you say." But when Ramaswamy attempted to brand Haley a hypocrite by telling the audience that Haley’s daughter was a Tik-Tok user, the full outrage from the former U.N. ambassador boiled over, and she squashed the smarmy, glib Ramaswamy like a bug. “Leave my daughter out of your voice!” Haley hissed. Then, sotto voce, but clearly audible on the mic: 'Just scum.' "
"Once again – shockingly – the Republicans generally avoided mentioning the guy who is actually way, way, way out ahead in every poll in every primary state. Why DeSantis and Haley refuse to pummel Trump on his isolationist tendencies in the face of Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan is an utter mystery. But once again, only Chris Christie made any effort to remind the audience exactly who all these candidates were losing to."
"In Wednesday’s Republican debate, she once again won the room, this time by simply by not being just another irksome, annoying male. She is not a wax museum automaton, not a preening poser eagerly showing his MAGA plumage like a horny bird-of-paradise in mating season, not an avuncular lecturer trying to force the party to swallow the medicine of truth, and not a Bible-toting dullard who can’t explain why he is running...But she did far more than simply not be an annoying male. Nikki Haley’s superpower is exuding an authentic, level-headed, practical humanity in a party that has become the Chernobyl of angry victimhood, a sinkhole of anti-Washington loathing, and a dystopia of deceit."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/11/btrtn-haleys-comet-meteoric-rise-or.html
BTRTN: Why Biden's 2024 Prospects Are Not Quite as Bad as the NY Times/Siena Poll Would Indicate
"Many friends and readers have been freaking out about the NY Times/Siena poll released earlier this week. It paints a very grim picture of Biden’s reelection prospects based on polling in six swing states. Their attention-grabbing conclusion is as follows: “If the results in the poll were the same next November, Mr. Trump would be poised to win more than 300 Electoral College votes, far above the 270 needed to take the White House.” They based that on their data that showed Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points or more, among registered voters, in five of those six swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania; Biden was slightly ahead in Wisconsin) . They are correct in their math: if those results did not change by Election Day, 2024, then Trump would emerge the winner by a 302-236 electoral vote margin.But I don’t agree with that conclusion, based on all the recent polls, and here’s why, state by state:
Michigan. By the NYT/Siena poll’s own data, Trump may be ahead by +5 in MIchigan among “registered voters,” but the race is..."
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/11/btrtn-why-bidens-2024-prospects-are-not.html
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