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Polybius

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Gender: Male
Home country: United States
Member since: Thu Sep 28, 2017, 10:03 PM
Number of posts: 10,452

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ABC News/The Washington Post poll

While they have an A+ rating by 538, it could still be an outlier...

With his party struggling in the midterms, his economic stewardship under fire and his overall job approval under 40%, a clear majority of Democrats in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say the party should replace Joe Biden as its nominee for president in 2024.

In the November midterm election ahead, registered voters divide 47%-46% between the Republican and the Democratic candidate in their House district, historically not enough to prevent typical first-midterm losses. And one likely voter model has a 51%-46% Republican-Democratic split.

Looking two years off, just 35% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favor Biden for the 2024 nomination; 56% want the party to pick someone else.

Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, for their part, split 47%-46% on whether Donald Trump should be their 2024 nominee -- a 20-point drop for Trump compared with his 2020 nomination.


Read more...

My (probably) unpopular opinion: 22nd Amendment (term limits for Presidents) should be repealed

I wish that the 22nd Amendment (term limits for Presidents) never happened, and I would love to repeal it. This has mostly hurt Democrats. Since being enacted in 1951, let's look at the Presidents that might have ran and possibly won a third term:

1) Dwight Eisenhower in 1960. OK, I'll give you that one, this is the only instance where the 22nd plays in our favor. Ike would almost certainly have won in 1960.

2) Reagan in 1988. Meh, we got Bush I anyway, so I see this as a push. Would the Iraq War have happened? Would Saddam have attacked Kuwait? Would Reagan have even ran, since he was really feeling the affects of Alzheimer's at this point?

3) Bill Clinton, 2000. He was very popular, still young (54), and a much better speaker and campaigner than Al Gore. 80% chance he beats W. Maybe greater.

4) George W. Bush, 2008. I'm not convinced that W runs in 2008, despite being not old and in great shape (62). His popularity was in the toilet at this point, the economy was in the tank, and he had no loyal Republican fan base. He likely loses by a wider margin than McCain.

5) Barack Obama, 2016. Being very popular and still young (55), he would absolutely crush Trump. This seals the deal for its repeal.

Alternate timelines (just to make it more interesting):

6) JFK 1968, had he not been killed

7) Richard Nixon in 1976, had there been no Watergate

What are your opinions on this?

A ton of polls came out over the past couple of days

Some good news, some bad news, and some neutral/in the middle. Check out Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

NY Times/Siena Trump vs Biden 2024 poll (Biden is ahead)

I doubt Trump will be a free man in 2024, but here's the poll anyway. Trump 42%, Biden 45%. 13% are either undecided or will vote for someone else.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/16/upshot/september-2022-times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html

Former M.L.B. Pitcher Turned Police Officer Killed in Car Crash

This really hits home. I know his brother and sister-in-law very well, as they've been over my house many times. I've met Anthony on a few occasions as well. Super-nice guy. Killed by a wrong way driver. I'm so sad, his family is heartbroken.

A former Major League Baseball pitcher who became a Port Authority police officer after retiring from the sport was killed in a car crash on Sunday while driving to a Sept. 11 commemoration in New York, according to the authorities and his former team.

The former pitcher, Anthony Varvaro, 37, was on the New Jersey Turnpike in Hudson County at about 4:30 a.m., en route to Lower Manhattan for the commemoration, when a Toyota RAV4 going the wrong way struck his Nissan Maxima, causing it to hit a concrete barrier, said Charles Marchan, a spokesman for the New Jersey State Police, in a statement. The driver of the Toyota, Henry A. Plazas, 30, and Mr. Varvaro were killed, Mr. Marchan said.

“On this solemn occasion as the Port Authority mourns the loss of 84 employees in the attacks on the World Trade Center — including 37 members of the Port Authority Police Department — our grief only deepens today with the passing of Officer Varvaro,” the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in a statement.

The family of Mr. Varvaro said in a statement that “words cannot express our heartbreak and how much we will miss Anthony.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/11/us/anthony-varvaro-crash-dead.html

Rapper PnB Rock fatally shot during robbery at Roscoe's Chicken & Waffles

Source: Los Angeles Times

PnB Rock, the Philadelphia rapper best known for his 2016 hit “Selfish,” was fatally shot during a robbery at the Roscoe’s House of Chicken & Waffles restaurant in South Los Angeles on Monday afternoon, law enforcement sources told The Times.

Los Angeles police Capt. Kelly Muniz said a shooting took place at 1:15 p.m. at the famous eatery on Main Street and Manchester Avenue. She would not identify the victim.

Rock, 30, whose real name was Rakim Allen, had been at the restaurant with his girlfriend, who had posted a location-tagged photo in a since-deleted Instagram post.

Muniz said a suspect brandished a firearm inside the restaurant and demanded items from the victim. Sources told The Times that Rock was targeted for his jewelry.

Read more: https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/music/story/2022-09-12/rapper-pnb-rock-shot-at-l-a-restaurant



Democrat Katie Hobbs says no to Arizona governor debate

Source: Associated Press

PHOENIX (AP) — Democrat Katie Hobbs’ campaign announced Sunday that she would not debate Republican Kari Lake as the two battle for the Arizona governor’s office, calling off any negotiations with Lake and the state commission overseeing debates.

The decision came after more than a week of efforts by Hobbs, currently secretary of state, to change the debate into separate half-hour interviews with the moderator. The Citizens Clean Elections Commission, which has held debates for two decades featuring candidates for statewide and legislative offices, flatly rejected that proposal on Thursday.

Instead, the commission urged its staff to work with Hobbs to come up with minor changes to the debate and gave her a week to come to an agreement. Hobbs’ campaign manager’s statements to the commissioners made it seem unlikely that a deal could be reached.

Nicole DeMont instead repeated the campaign’s concerns that debating Lake would “just create another spectacle, like we saw in the GOP primary debate. But on top of that, I would just add, you can’t debate a conspiracy theorist and at the last debate, she brought the conversation back to the 2020 election no less than a dozen times.”

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-arizona-campaigns-government-and-politics-540ee7c3603d522c4e12c4e7083443b5



I'm not really a fan of backing out of debates. Flame away, but I don't think it looks good to swing voters. It would be very easy to show what a nut Lake is in a debate. This worked very well for Biden who mopped the floor with Trump in debates (especially the first one).

Arizona Senate - Masters vs. Kelly Emerson poll

Emerson has Kelly at 47% (Incumbent Democrat), and Masters (Republican) at 45%. Can anyone tell me how reliable Emerson is? I know that they have A+ rating by 538, but how have they fared in 2018 and 2020?

They also have Hobbs and Lake tied at 46% for Governor.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-mark-kelly-faces-tight-race-with-blake-masters-katie-hobbs-and-kari-lake-in-dead-heat-for-governorship/

What do you think will be the closest Senate race this year?

Almost every time there are Senate elections, one or more will be decided by 1% or less. Sometimes we barely win, and sometimes we barely lose. Even if no 2022 Senate elections come within 1%, one still has to be the closest. Which one do you think the closest one will be this year? My guess is Georgia.

SC Democrats call on their party's US Senate nominee to quit

Source: Associated Press

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — The South Carolina Democrat vying to oust Republican U.S. Sen. Tim Scott is facing calls from within her own party to fold her campaign, following the publication of additional leaked audio in which she appears to make disparaging remarks about her constituents.

The calls for state Rep. Krystle Matthews to withdraw just two months ahead of the general election came Thursday in reaction to leaked audio published by conservative activist group Project Veritas of Matthews speaking to one of its members, without her knowledge.

Sitting in a restaurant, Matthews, who is Black, is heard saying that she represents a “mostly white” district, adding, of white voters: “I keep them right here — like under my thumbs. ... Otherwise, they get out of control — like kids.”

“You ought to know who you’re dealing with,” Matthews goes on to say. “You’ve got to treat them like s—-. That’s the only way they’ll respect you.”

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-campaigns-south-carolina-general-tim-scott-968b58c3a799215444e596d92eb8cf7d



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