August 18, 2021

Nobody Cares Who Lost Afghanistan It's not a political liability for Joe Biden - Bill Scher

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1428080113774628866?s=20


Reagan's approval stayed steady after the Lebanon withdrawal

Ford's approval went up after the Fall of Saigon

JFK's approval was stratospheric after Bay of Pigs

Why Biden's fate likely isn't tied to Afghanistan. My
@monthly
latest:



“We did train—and there was no attention paid to this—our army had a unit in there training,” the president said, “and made a very capable military.” But “some units of the army refused to take up arms against some of their same ethnic background, or religious background.” And so “it was agreed that there was no longer any point… and we withdrew.”

That isn’t President Joe Biden in his Monday address about the Afghanistan withdrawal. It’s President Ronald Reagan in his April 1984 press conference after the U.S. military withdrawal from Lebanon. Seven months later, Reagan was re-elected in a landslide.

The only difference between what Reagan said in April 1984 and what Biden said Monday is that Biden put it even more straightforwardly than the president remembered as the Great Communicator. “The Afghan military collapsed,” Biden said,

It’s a cold political truth that voters don’t punish American presidents for policy failures beyond American borders so long as the failures don’t hurt Americans directly. Even in the 1952 election, when Dwight D. Eisenhower famously echoed Sen. Joe McCarthy’s accusation that the Democrats “lost” China, his knockout blow against Adlai Stevenson wasn’t that half a billion people in a far-off country were now subject to Communist rule. It was that nearly two million U.S. soldiers fought in Korea, and more than 36,000 of them died there. Ike pledged to bring the troops home.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/08/18/nobody-cares-who-lost-afghanistan/

August 18, 2021

Pakistan's Pyrrhic Victory in Afghanistan Islamabad Will Come to Regret Aiding the Taliban's Resur

Pakistan’s security establishment is cheering the Taliban’s recent military gains in Afghanistan. The country’s hard-liners have funneled support to the Taliban for decades, and they can now envision their allies firmly ensconced in Kabul. Pakistan got what it wished for—but will come to regret it. A Taliban takeover will leave Pakistan more vulnerable to extremism at home and potentially more isolated on the world stage.


The end of the United States’ 20-year war in Afghanistan also promises to mark a turning point in its relationship with Islamabad. Pakistan has long veiled its ambitions in Afghanistan to maintain relations with Washington, but that balancing act—seen in Washington as a double game—will prove impossible in the event that a reconstituted Islamic emirate is established in Kabul. This would not be the vindication that Pakistan’s military is expecting: the Taliban are less likely to defer to Pakistan in their moment of triumph, and the Americans are not likely to reconcile with the group over the long term. Pakistan’s nightmare scenario would be to find itself caught between an uncontrollable Taliban and international demands to rein them in.

The Taliban’s victory will have an equally disastrous effect on Pakistan’s domestic peace and security. Islamist extremism has already divided Pakistani society along sectarian lines, and the ascendance of Afghan Islamists next door will only embolden radicals at home. Efforts to force the Taliban’s hand might result in violent blowback, with Pakistani Taliban attacking targets inside Pakistan. And if fighting between the Taliban and their opponents worsens, Pakistan will have to deal with a new flow of refugees. A civil war next door would further damage the country’s struggling economy. Pakistani critics of their country’s involvement with the Taliban have long feared and predicted this scenario. But Pakistan’s generals see the Taliban as an important partner in their competition with India. Weak civilian leaders in Islamabad, meanwhile, have acquiesced to a policy that prioritizes the elimination of real or perceived Indian influence in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s security establishment has long obsessed about imposing a friendly government in Kabul. That fixation is rooted in the belief that India is plotting to break up Pakistan along ethnic lines and that Afghanistan will be the launching pad for antigovernment insurgencies in Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. These fears have their roots in the fact that Afghanistan claimed parts of Balochistan and Pakistan’s Pashtun regions at the time of Pakistan’s creation in August 1947. Afghanistan recognized Pakistan and established diplomatic relations a few days later but did not acknowledge the British-drawn Durand Line as an international border until 1976. Afghanistan also remained friendly with India, leading Pakistan to allow Afghan Islamists to organize on its territory even before the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-07-22/pakistans-pyrrhic-victory-afghanistan?utm_campaign=tw_daily_soc&utm_source=twitter_posts&utm_medium=social

August 17, 2021

There are now 3 Dem led subcommittees on the withdrawal from Afghanistan

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1427691039750565898?s=20


New: Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Menendez (D-N.J.) says he’ll “seek a full accounting” of the Biden admin’s “flawed execution of the U.S. withdrawal.”

That makes *three* Dem-led Senate committees vowing oversight of how the Biden team bungled the withdrawal.


Menendez: “I am disappointed that the Biden administration clearly did not accurately assess the implications of a rapid U.S. withdrawal. We are now witnessing the horrifying results of many years of policy and intelligence failures.”

Menendez says the review will also look at how the Afghan army “collapsed so quickly,” calling it “astounding.”

“Congress was told repeatedly that the Afghan Defense and Security Forces were up to the task… The American and Afghan people clearly have not been told the truth…”




I hope they investigate Trump and Ghani as well . Why put the blame entirely on Biden when they don't know what happened?

August 17, 2021

This comment about the press is the truth

https://twitter.com/ArmandoNDK/status/1427616835080441856?s=20

MSNBC not happy that evacuation today is orderly and not chaotic.



https://twitter.com/andy_farquhar/status/1427623870983458822?s=20

Early this morning the Washington Post quietly downgraded the situation from catastrophic to "eerie tension."

August 17, 2021

CNN and MSNBC are no better this morning. From a Marine who served in Afghanistan

From a marine, who served in Afghanistan



https://twitter.com/STEMthebleeding/status/1427458730212438025?s=20



Man, I picked a good day to mostly stay off this site today.

The number of bad takes by people who couldn't find Afghanistan on a map were coming fast and thick, and simultaneously ignoring the actual experts, ie those of us who survived by understanding Afghanistan is NOT the west


"We trained the army for 20 years!"

The average ANA service time was measured in weeks and months before they'd disappear, not years.

Very few "veterans" in the ANA, and those who did exist were often reassigned to be VIP guards or other non-infantry roles


"They had planes and helicopters!"

Most of them are decades old, lacking crucial maintenance, and trained crews to repair them. There was talk of the ANA getting maintained in Qatar, but that's obviously not a viable strategy.


"We should've trained them better!"

We taught them to read and write, drive, talk on comms, AND how to fight. Largely, they ignored our lessons, preferring to look "manly" on Liveleak vs being combat effective.

Plus it turns out they weren't getting paid by the Afghan govt.

"But the govt has fallen!"

For most people outside of Kabul and Kandahar, life doesn't change much. They're a tribal people, the Imam is their "leader", and his words ARE the law.

There is no patriotism in Afghanistan as we know it, their loyalty is to their village and Imam.


"We should've trained women to fight!"

The Afghani people never would've recognized a military force comprised of women regardless of their effectiveness. The Afghan govt would actively sabotage them, and it would embolden the Taliban that we were corrupting the country.


"We should've evacuated refugees sooner!"

You can't start an evacuation of a nation's citizens until the govt allows it. We've learned that Ghani refused, which isn't surprising, given what it would've resulted in: his death at the hands of the Taliban.


I can keep going, but the fact is there were 3 options:

1) we left in May, fewer refugees get out, Taliban retake Afghanistan in days

2) We leave now, packing 800 refugees into a C17 made for 100, meaning more refugees survive, Taliban take the country.

3) 200k more US troops.


2500 US troops since January didn't "hold the Taliban", because there were no engagements. It wasn't a deterrent, because most of those forces were transpo and support, not infantry.

It would take 50-75x that much to actually secure the country. 150-200k infantry forces.

And let's just say for giggles, the US takes the country back.

Then what? We put in another puppet govt that the Taliban can buy off while they're rebuilding in Pakistan?

Train another force that the corrupt govt won't pay so they can be bribed to surrender immediately?

Or the alternative, Afghanistan becomes a "US protectorate", mimicking the Philippines for the next 50 years.

But that ignores the rub: The Afghani people, unlike the Philippines, Koreans, Tawainese- didn't ask for democracy.

we just showed up

August 17, 2021

I'm Seeing Healthy People Die Every Day': COVID Spirals in Mississippi

On Monday, Aug. 2, a 34-year-old woman in Gulfport, Mississippi, started feeling dizzy at work. She tested positive for COVID-19 a few days after that.

By the next Sunday, she was dead. Her husband, also in his mid-thirties, died from coronavirus this past Saturday, according to Brian Switzer, the local coroner.

“These are deaths I wouldn’t have seen a month or two ago,” Switzer, the Harrison County Coroner, told The Daily Beast. “I’m seeing significantly younger folks this time around, but there’s still this idea that if you’re young and don’t have comorbidities, you’re not going to die.”

But as the Delta variant pushes the state’s entire health-care system to the brink of collapse, those coming face-to-face with COVID’s victims say the virus’ target has changed dramatically, from older to younger Mississippians—often healthy, and virtually always unvaccinated.


https://www.thedailybeast.com/coroners-say-covid-19-is-spiraling-in-mississippi-and-younger-unvaccinated-people-are-the-ones-dying?source=articles&via=rss

August 17, 2021

Looks like EVERYBODY'S getting vaccine booster shots! Breaking from WaPo

The Biden administration is planning to announce that all Americans who have received the coronavirus vaccine will need booster shots to combat waning immunity from the immunizations and the highly transmissible delta variant that is sparking a surge in covid-19 cases throughout the nation, according to four people familiar with the decision.

The administration’s health and science experts are coalescing around the view that people will need the boosters eight months after they are fully vaccinated, according to the people who requested anonymity to discuss a decision not yet public. The decision is likely to be announced as soon as this week.

The actual administration of the boosters would not occur until mid- or late September, after Pfizer’s application for additional shots for the general public is cleared by the Food and Drug Administration, the individuals said.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/16/booster-shot-coronavirus/

August 16, 2021

Lake Mead -the nation's largest water reservoir - is only at 40% capacity

https://twitter.com/NickKnudsenUS/status/1427390450483089408?s=20


Lake Mead - the nation’s largest reservoir - is at only 40% capacity, triggering a declaration of water shortage for the first time ever.

Arizona will lose 18% of its annual water apportionment and Nevada will lose 7%.

August 16, 2021

Some in the military are speaking out, blaming Biden. Anonymously , of course.

Trumpers have been calling for Gen. Milley to resign. Probably him.


https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1427345899152453636?s=20


Nearly a half dozen U.S. officials (across the administration) tell Reuters that there is increasing frustration and even anger with the way Biden has handled the evacuation from Kabul, saying his White House wasted too much time in the months leading up to last week.


Officials say the military for weeks had been telling the White House that they were ready to do more, in terms of basing and flights from evacuating Afghans, but a decision didn't come until it was too late.


Officials tell Reuters that an address from Biden today, well after the Taliban military advances began, is far too late. They added that some of the defenses given by the White House, including NSA Sullivan earlier today, are baffling.



https://twitter.com/arianapekary/status/1427350548341198850?s=20

August 16, 2021

Interesting Twitter thread from Ajmal Ahmady, Central Bank Governor of Afghanistan

https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?s=20


1/The collapse of the Government in Afghanistan this past week was so swift and complete - it was disorienting and difficult to comprehend.

This is how the events seemed to proceed from my perspective as Central Bank Governor.


2/Although much of the rural areas fell to the Taliban over the past few months, the first provincial capital to fall was just 1 week and two days ago!

On Friday August 6th, Ziranj fell. Over the next 6 days, a number of other provinces fell - particularly in the north.

3/There were multiple rumors that directions to not fight were somehow coming from above.

This has been repeated by Atta Noor and Ismael Khan.

Seems difficult to believe, but there remains a suspicion as to why ANSF left posts so quickly. There is something left unexplained


4/Currency volatility and other indicators had worsened, but DAB were able to stabilize the macroeconomic environment relatively well during the last week - given the deteriorating security environment.

Then came last Thursday

5/I attended my normal meetings. Ghazni fell in the morning.

I left work, and by the time I went home - Herat, Kandahar, and Baghdis also fell. Helmand was also under serious attack


6/Friday - we received a call that given the deteriorating environment, we wouldn’t get any more dollar shipments.

People spread rumors that I had fled on Friday.

On Saturday, DAB had to supply less currency to the markets on Saturday, which further increased panic.


7/Currency spiked from a stable 81 to almost 100 then back to 86. I held meetings on Saturday to reassure banks and money exchangers to calm them down. I can’t believe that was one day before Kabul fell


8/On Saturday night, my family called to say that most government had already left. I was dumbfounded.

A security assessment accurately forecast Taliban arrival to Kabul within 36 hours and its fall within 56 hours

I got worried & purchased tickets for Monday as a precaution


9/On Sunday I began work. Reports throughout morning were increasingly worrisome. I left the bank and left deputies in charge. Felt terrible about leaving staff.

But arrived at airport & saw that Mohaqeq, Rahmani, Massoud, etc were already there! Head of parliament seems content


10/Saw VP Danish leaving - reportedly for Qatar. By then it was rumored that VP Saleh had left.

Ministers + others were waiting for a Fly Dubai & Emirates flights. Both were cancelled

I secured a Kam Air flight Sunday 7pm. Then the floor fell: the President had already left


11/I knew right then my flight would be cancelled and there would be chaos.

As expected employees & military left posts. Everyone ran through gates to on Kam Air flight. 300+ passengers boarded for a 100-seat plane.

The plane had no fuel or pilot. We all hoped it would depart


12/However, I decided to disembark and spotted another military plane. It was surrounded by people trying to board, while the guard forces held people back and boarded their embassy staff.

There was a rush. Some shots were fired. Somehow, my close colleagues pushed me on board.

13/It did not have to end this way. I am disgusted by the lack of any planning by Afghan leadership. Saw at airport them leave without informing others.

I asked the palace if there was an evacuation plan/charter flights. After 7 years of service, I was met with silence


14/During last days, I feared not only risks related to Taliban, but fear of transition period once there is no chain of command.

Once president’s departure was announced, I knew within minutes chaos would follow. I cannot forgive him for creating that without a transition plan

15/ I did not criticize them until now, but key figures Fazly & Mohib were too inexperienced in their roles, & was President’s failure that he never recognized such weaknesses.

He himself had great ideas but poor execution. If I contributed to that, I take my share of the blame.

And this. I will be trying to support any requests for assistance, but worry that given my personal experience at airport that any support for friends and colleagues be limited

Did I have a reason to worry? This is the text someone sent me:

“Taliban come to and were looking for you. They were asking about Ajmal Ahmady DAB Governor.”

Whatever their personal views, I also had many personal enemies. Or maybe they just wanted to greet me