Cheezoholic
Cheezoholic's JournalMonday noon update on Ian from Dr. Levi Cowan
Listen to this guy, he knows his shit
Folks along the west coast of FL dont let your guard down
The models are doing the windshield wiper and are now shifting farther east with Ian. Like I posted before they have struggled all summer with these strong troughs moving through the central CONUS. We are getting close to 120 hours out and the accuracy will increase as time decreases. I can't emphasize enough a Cat 4/5 coming in at this angle, if that occurs, could be Michael hitting 1000 times the amount of people that storm affected. Charley took a hard right, its not the same as a strengthening system moving water NNE for days into a catchers mit with nowhere to go. The model trends have shifted back east tonight and thats reflected in the new NHC cone.
The NHC is what should be followed but I will say from experience tracking storms anything that is stacked and already a hurricane has the potential to bomb like crazy around the western tip of Cuba. Those who remember Wilma, this is where she blossomed.
Just please take this thing super seriously. A Cat 5 storm in the early 1900's put almost all of Pinellas county under water.
Very good video on the future of TS Ian from Levi Cowan
There's nobody better on the web explaining these things. He puts up at least 1 video a day.
He also has a great website
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
TS Ian, folks really need to be paying attention
especially along the west coast of FL. I am not normally an alarmist when it comes to these storms but this one really has my, and many other weather nerds, ears perked. There have been many comparisons to Hurricane Charley because of the the current forecast path. That is understandable but also foolish. Don't count on a hard right like Charley.
Hopefully the intensity models forecasters use are smoking crack but they have been very consistent the last 48 hours spitting out intensity numbers I've rarely seen in my 30 years of nerd tracking for a storm just formed in the last 24 hours.
The Tampa Bay area needs to be on extra high alert over the next 48 hours. Pinellas county has one of the highest number of trailers per square mile in the entire country, self explanitory. Plus, if it comes quick, there's no way off of that peninsula in time. I lived there for 12 years, still have friends and family there, and if I still lived there my ass would be gone by tomorrow night if trends continue. The potential for a storm like Michael plowing right into the bay area from the SSW is definitely on the table. If you live in the area have a plan in place now not to stay but to leave as early as possible. If it gets within 36 hours of a big one youre not going to be able to leave Pinellas county.
The Tampa Bay area has been at the top of list of vulnerability to a major hurricane for decades. John Hope (whose daughter Hurricane Camille was named after when he was at the NHC) used to say a strengthening major Cat 4 or 5 coming from the SSW into central Pinellas county could lead to the largest loss of life from a hurricane since the great Galveston storm, and he was a very smart man.
Once again I'm not trying to be an alarmist but please pay very close attention to this coming storm. The water, atmosphere and geography are almost perfectly aligned for this one. Be smart Be safe 
Folks from the central Gulf coast to the Keys be alert
With focus on Fiona mother nature pulls her favorite trick of misdirection. The system in the western Carib is entering an area weather nerds call the Cat 5 generator around the western tip of Cuba. a lot of us on weather boards have been watching this sneaky system for a week while focus was on Fiona. The NHC classified it as a depression with forecast to a major basically as soon as it was classified. This could be a quick hitter catching the public by surprise. Please get your info from the NHC and not theses youtube crackpots. There's potential for this one to be a Tampa Bay pusher which well is the most vulnerable area in the Gulf for a northern pushing strengthening major storm in the far eastern GOM..
A link for storm reports from the Caribbean I've been using for decades
It's nothing fancy but its information straight from the regular folks down there. Posts from the various islands (and Bermuda) are on the right side of the page. Sometimes they're scary sometimes they're humorous (island people can have a strange sense of humor lol.).
I have visited many of the islands in the past and have many friends scattered around the various islands and family in Puerto Rico.
If you're interested in what's going on during storms down there its a great resource. The Turks and Caicos are currently taking the brunt and there are several reports from DR and Puerto Rico. So far the damage is not as bad as it could've been, but it's still pretty bad. Mind you these aren't disaster newscasters (i hate weather newscasters), just folks like you and me. And as a note, these folks really prepare like no others. The US could take some lessons from them.
Anyway, if anyone is interested....
https://stormcarib.com/
The supercomputers vs the atmosphere vs climate change
I'm an avid weather nerd and by no means am I trying to trash the NHC or NOAA. These are the best professionals in the world when it comes to forecasting the tropics. Fiona is once again another storm that as pulled the rug out from under the short term forecasts.
Its been amazing the number of storms that just skirt the NE part of the Herbert box lately and get mired in that anomalously warm bath water around SE Bahamas and explode. There's another area in the NW Caribbean that's enabling storms to just do things forecasters and modeling are playing catch up to.
While Fiona will is most likely to stay well east of the US it still could effect Bermuda and the far NE parts of Canada. And with it already being a major well ahead of the forecasts 24 hours ago the potential for major impacts has greatly increased.
The US needs to watch the NW Caribbean next week. Once again a possible weak system entering an area models and forecasters have struggled with lately. I can't help but think climate change is affecting the least understood mid levels of the atmosphere more than we understand.
I've been getting some nice backlash from MAGATs lately
when I directly refer to them as Sea Monkeys. Usually the initial reaction in person is a pause long enough that I can pick their wallet and truck keys, then take their wife to dinner at Wendy's instead of Rons place. Then return her, pleasantly puzzled, along with their slightly lighter wallet and their truck less 2 gallons of gas to finally get a response like ''are you calling me a Sea Monkey?'' I usually reply ''of course not, those were just brine shrimp eggs masterfully marketed in the back of a Richie Rich comic book as a royal society that ruled the kingdom 7 year olds blessed upon them in a glass of water. You're much smarter than a Sea Monkey''.
No wonder Russia and China have suddenly grown balls the size of Jupiter
they probably hacked our nukes with codes from him and his fascist group so if we have to push the button "the biggest and greatest ever" Macy's Day balloon of his fat ass pops out the top of Traitor tower.
Profile Information
Member since: Wed Sep 30, 2020, 04:57 PMNumber of posts: 2,022