Susquehana +1 Trump lead in Florida is actually good news for Biden

very confusing NY Sienna Florida poll

In person on Election Day vote probability

Democrats -56%
GOP- 63%
Rest - 47%

However, 62% of the registered voters have already voted.

Not making sense. Do not expect more than 75% vote-maybe 80%.

Florida update -It is dependent on independents

Florida

As of this morning:

Dems 39.2%
GOP 38.1%
NPA - 21.3%

Dems lead only by 1.1% with 60% voted. Only 94,905. 95000 lead is Hillary Clinton territory which worries me. Maybe, election day GOP voters have already voted (Stay home GOP on election day)

Miami-Dade- Dems lead by only 84000!

Well, I hope the polls are correct. Numbers are giving me some worries. Maybe, NPA's are solidly behind Biden and GOP Retirees are switching sides.

Source: https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

One Good News:
There seems to be some positive news in Miami-Dade today. More Democrats are coming, maybe Kamala worked hard yesterday. Many say that NPAs are voting at a higher rate in Miami-Dade.

Did the March to Vote in NC vote?

Or, did the police not allow them to vote? Anyone from NC? Man, this is like a Voter Rights era battle!

Florida update based on a Florida guy on twitter

According to a Florida blog guy,

BAD NEWS:

Dave Trotter
@DaNumbersGuy
I think one of the stories today in #Florida is that Early Voting lines in Miami-Dade are almost empty, even compared to last Saturday.

SOME GOOD NEWS:

Dave Trotter
@DaNumbersGuy
Places in Orange County with wait times of 45+ right now are along Lee Road and in East Orange (by UCF). Very good news for Democrats.

@DaNumbersGuy
Today's electorate is becoming more Democratic as the day is passing.

Note: This is not from an official site but he has been good. So, Miami-Dade better vote on election day.

C'mon Florida - Return the 685542 absentee ballots NOW

Democrats lead GOP by 163683. However, outstanding Dem absentee ballots- 685,542. I know they all want Biden but they still have to return the ballot. Polls won't translate unless we vote!

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

Florida Wednesday All votes as of noon - GOP 37.5- Dem 41.1

I know Biden is going to Tampa tomorrow. Unless the 20.2% independents break for Biden, I wonder if Democrats need to focus on AZ and NC where it is very tight but winnable. Hate to come out empty in AZ, NC, GA and FL. I trust them but I am concerned. Numbers seem to be showing a GOP win. 1.5% lead on election day won't do it. Hope all Dems sitting on their ballots drop it off on Oct 31st.

Just today (10/28/20), as of noon, GOP has:

Democrats: 36,473 31.27%
Republicans: 51,642 44.27%
NPA/Others: 28,542 24.47%

I know a poll yesterday showed Biden 50-48. I am having a tough time seeing that in the numbers unless a big chunk of GOP is going for Biden. Generally, it goes both ways. It is a wash usually. Some Dems go GOP and vice versa. Anyone have more insight?

Issues in Miami-Dade and other areas

MSNBC says many mail-in ballots in Miami-Dade did not have signatures. How can someone miss this critical info? They say in Miami-Dade they can cure it but have to contact the office.

Objective for this week (for me and all DUERS)

1. Need to focus this week on education and how to cure. Big issues in Dem areas and in Miami-Dade.

2. Some in Michigan do not know if their ballots were accepted? What to do if true on Nov 1st? They cannot revote. It is felony. No one has explained this.

3. Many mail-in ballots are still not returned. Yes, many have but 100% of requested ballots have to be returned. Trumpies are coming on Nov 3rd.

4. GOTV and I am volunteering this week.

Obama to speak in Miami soon

Not sure why MSNBC is saying Biden trails Trump by 2.

I think we will know this weekend if we have a chance to win Florida

Hello Miami-Dade DUers! Do it for the country. Miami-Dade in-person early voting seems to be well below par. (as per Florida Sec of State info). I am hoping it will change this weekend. It has to if we need a shot at Florida (and help us sleep early on Nov 3rd)